US to 'exploit' mystery over Saddam's fate

By Kathryn Westcott
BBC News Online

American officials are reported to be intensifying their psychological operations in Iraq in an attempt to raise questions in Iraqis' minds about whether Saddam Hussein is dead or alive.

Experts believe some speeches are pre-recorded

According to a report in the New York Times, persuading Iraqis that Saddam Hussein may have died or become incapacitated is key to attempts to weaken the regime and hasten its collapse.

Many senior US officials - particularly in the military - believe that if Iraqis knew their leader was gone, they would capitulate. US forces in the field have been reporting back that most Iraqis seem to think Saddam Hussein is still alive and that this belief may be hampering attempts to persuade them to back the coalition.

Officials say they are now going to use radio broadcasts and other forms of communication to point out that the Iraqi leader has done nothing to prove that he is still in charge.

Earlier this week, US Government officials said they were still uncertain about the fate of the Iraqi leader or who in Baghdad was in overall control of Iraq's military forces.

Propaganda radio

CIA agents are reported to be in the capital trying to collect information that could prove whether the Iraqi leader is dead or alive. They are believed to be staking out presidential palaces, civilian residences and military compounds.

In the past few days, the administration has deliberately intensified its public questioning about Saddam Hussein's fate.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have repeatedly noted he has failed to appear in public since the war began. They also mentioned his recent failures to make presidential addresses via state television.

CIA agents are believed to be staking out presidential palaces

Such briefings by Mr Rumsfeld and other senior officials are now being translated into Arabic and broadcast on Iraqi radio frequencies from US military planes.

"The fact that Saddam Hussein did not show up for his televised speech is interesting," the Defence Secretary said.

Appearing on television during the last Gulf War is said to have been one of Saddam Hussein's main mechanisms for maintaining a grip on his country.

In other remarks to be broadcast to the Iraqi people, Mr Rumsfeld referred to speculation that the Iraqi leader's family may have fled Iraq.

"The families of some of the leaders seem to be fleeing the country," Mr Rumsfeld said. "I think the Iraqi people have to have a sense that things are not going terribly well."

According to the New York Times, captured Iraqis have told Americans that such rumours about Saddam's family are spreading.

Lying low

Experts who have studied Saddam Hussein, say the Iraqi leader is deliberately trying to create confusion about his whereabouts.

"He is a very clever and cunning man, and he knows that so many people around the world compiling his psychological profile believe he is hiding in his bunker or whatever. It could be a red herring," journalist Adel Darwish, who has met Saddam Hussein a number of times, told the BBC.

This time, I hear, he may have opted for the desert around the town of Tikrit

Middle East expert Hazhir Taimourian

Kurdish Middle East expert Hazhir Taimourian thinks Saddam Hussein will is go to great lengths to keep a low profile.

"During the last war, he travelled around Baghdad by taxi and he slept in a series of humble houses," he told the BBC.

"This time, I hear, he may have opted for the desert around the town of Tikrit, north of Baghdad and his birthplace, disguised as a Bedouin."

Some analysts say Mr Rumsfeld's public questioning about whether the Iraqi leader is still in control of his country are designed to goad him into appearing in public so he could be targeted and killed.

But the Iraqi leader, who has long been preoccupied with personal security, rarely appears in public.

Intelligence experts believe the initial attacks on his bunker two weeks ago indicate there could have been an agent in his midst who disclosed his whereabouts.

And there are fears this could happen again. On Wednesday, the Iraqi Government ordered all Iraqis to hand in their satellite mobile phones to prevent Iraqis communicating with coalition agents.

"The concerned authorities have learned that there are some others who have been implicated in collaborating with the enemy and exploiting these phones for treasonous acts."

In the days leading up to the war, intelligence agents are believed to have bombarded politicians and military leaders with e-mails, text messages and mobile phone calls urging them to break with Saddam Hussein.