Russia's Iraqi balancing act

Russia's Iraqi balancing act

By Steve Rosenberg BBC Moscow correspondent

Vladimir Putin says a war against Iraq would be a mistake.

The Russian Foreign Ministry says weapons inspections must continue.

Even the Orthodox Patriarch has written to George Bush calling for peace.

Putin must work out Russia's post-war gameplan

Is Washington likely to listen? Probably not. Diplomacy is faltering. The countdown to war has begun, and Moscow knows it.

Officials here are under no illusions. They don't want a war, but they can do little to prevent the United States from attacking Baghdad. So what will Russia's gameplan be in the event of war?

Moscow's first task will be to maintain the moral high ground.

By staying on the sidelines and refusing to support the war, Russia will hope to be seen as a peacemaker, rather than the perpetrator.

Its international reputation will be intact - and support back home guaranteed.

Public opinion

Opposing a US-led war goes down well with conservatives in the military, as well as the general public. Opinion polls suggest that up to 90% of Russians are against the idea of military action against Iraq.

Task two will be to preserve Russia's economic links with Iraq. That could prove much harder.

If the United States removes Saddam Hussein from power, it is US companies - not Russian ones - which are likely to profit most.

What happens then to the oil contracts signed by Russian companies with Baghdad? Or the $8bn of Soviet-era debt owed to Moscow by Saddam?

By choosing not to stand shoulder to shoulder with George W Bush at this critical time, Vladimir Putin risks damaging what had been Russia's blossoming relationship

Moscow could find itself out of pocket.

A senior Russian diplomat told the BBC that so far Washington had not provided Moscow with any guarantees that its economic interests in Iraq will be protected.

And that is just the start of the problems.

By choosing not to stand shoulder to shoulder with George W Bush at this critical time, Vladimir Putin risks damaging what had been Russia's blossoming relationship with the United States.

That could mean less US investment in the Russian economy, and less US assistance for Moscow's efforts to join the World Trade Organisation.

Last week the US ambassador in Moscow warned of serious consequences if Russia vetoed the draft resolution.

But Moscow may have decided that is just a bluff.

Mutual dependence

Officials here believe that America needs Russia just as much as Russia needs America: to wage war on international terrorism, or to help ease tensions with North Korea.

If that is the case, Washington will be keen to retain friendly ties with Moscow.

Finally, Russia will be hoping to secure a role for itself in the post-war reconstruction of Iraq.

Much of Iraq's current infrastructure was built by Russian specialists - Moscow will push hard for Russian companies to take part in rebuilding the country.