Iraq diplomacy's final round

Iraq diplomacy's final round

By Jon Leyne BBC State Department correspondent

UK Foreign Minister Jack Straw stole the show in the latest instalment of the Security Council drama

Nobody knows exactly when the war will start. But the diplomatic showdown has now entered its final phase.

Wrangling over the resolution overshadowed the latest presentation to the Security Council by the weapons inspectors.

Almost every conversation in the corridors of the United Nations eventually comes to a head count.

Who will vote in favour, who will vote against, who will abstain? Will anyone veto?

So for once it was not Hans Blix who stole the show. Colin Powell was strangely muted. There was no applause this time for the French Foreign Minister, Dominique de Villepin.

Instead, the starring act in this latest instalment of the Security Council drama was the British Foreign Minister, Jack Straw.

It was Mr Straw who put forward the latest proposal, for a March 17 deadline to be presented to Iraq.

Mr Straw also engaged in a remarkable personal debate with his French counterpart - "my dear friend, Dominique," as he addressed him.

"Dominique said the choice was disarmament by peace, or disarmament by war," Mr Straw argued. "I wish it was that easy."

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Mr Straw's impassioned speech in favour of confronting Iraq won a light smattering of applause - revenge, perhaps carefully orchestrated, for the ovation that greeted Mr Villepin at the last big Security Council meeting.

Vote uncertainty

Iraq has not taken the last chance offered to it by the council

Martin Belinga Eboutou
Cameroon ambassador

But the real puzzle now is over the votes of the non-permanent members.

Will they be persuaded to support the latest draft resolution? Every word of their speeches was examined.

"Iraq has not taken the last chance offered to it by the council," said the ambassador of Cameroon, Martin Belinga Eboutou - an apparent echo of the language in the new resolution.

"My delegation welcomes the advances [by the inspectors]," said the Guinean Foreign Minister, Francois Lonseny Fall - perhaps a nod to the French position of extending the inspections.

One observer even suggested Mr Fall's traditional African attire suggested hostility to American policy.

All of that could become irrelevant if France carries out what sounded like the clearest possible threat to veto.

"France will not allow a resolution to pass automatically authorising the use of force," said Mr de Villepin.

Going it alone

So the process has been decided. The outcome is anything but clear.

There are just a few more days left for frenzied diplomatic negotiations.

A vote could come as early as Tuesday.

American diplomats seem almost resigned to a humiliating defeat.

One senior American official told the BBC: "What we are hoping is that we have a majority of votes - we believe that would express the democratic will of the council."

But a majority of votes could be as few as eight of the 15 council members.

Resolutions need nine votes to pass - and that is without a veto.

The United States, and Britain, may have to carry out their threat to go to war without the new endorsement they so dearly desire from the Security Council.