US patience in short supply

US patience in short supply

By Jon Leyne BBC State Department correspondent

US Secretary of State Colin Powell says Iraq has made no real attempt to disarm

The signals from Colin Powell could not be clearer. The time for diplomacy is drawing to a close.

The United States will see "in the next few days" whether Saddam Hussein understands the situation and decides to disarm, Mr Powell argued in a speech at a Washington think-tank.

He went on to suggest action next week on the United Nations' Security Council resolution proposed by the United States.

Despite those confident signals from Mr Powell, the Iraq crisis has actually entered a new period of uncertainty.

	:	Who backs war?
Where key nations stand on Iraq

No-one in Washington doubts that President George W Bush will order a war.

The question is when, and with what level of international support. At the moment, it is a complicated mess.

Turkish upset

It was the surprise vote by the Turkish parliament last weekend to reject an American troop presence that really upset the American planning.

Thirty ships piled high with American equipment are still waiting to unload in order to mount a second, northern front, against Iraq.

TURKEY'S MILITARY IMPORTANCE

US plans: To deploy 62,000 troops. Infantry division currently on 40 transport ships in Mediterranean or in port
Options if Turkey refuses:

Airborne division flown into Kurdish controlled northern Iraq

Massive and speedy land invasion from south

Map: Attack strategies

On the face of it, the situation in Turkey is likely to delay a possible war with Iraq by at least a week to 10 days.

That is how long it could take either to get a new vote in the Turkish parliament, or to redeploy US forces to Kuwait.

But Washington is not expected even to make a decision until after the outcome of elections in Turkey on Sunday that could lead to a new Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, taking office.

A strong signal from Mr Erdogan that he would push again to allow US troops in his country could tempt the Americans to delay their military plans even further.

A vote itself would probably not happen till the following week; then there is the time it would take US forces to come ashore and get their equipment ready in Turkey, even if that all worked out.

All that is an argument for the Pentagon to cut its losses and redirect the troops to Kuwait.

But without an agreement with Turkey, there is the potential for confusion or even confrontation in northern Iraq between the Americans, Turks and Kurds. That would be highly dangerous.

Chicken game

Then there is the issue of a new UN resolution.

Much as President Bush protests otherwise, he would really like to secure renewed UN endorsement of his plans.

The Americans say they are optimistic about winning the votes. It is hard to see where from.

The French, Russians and the Germans remain adamantly opposed.

It is a diplomatic game of chicken - with each side daring the other to bring it to a vote.

If there is no prospect of winning a new resolution, President Bush may feel forced to call off the diplomatic negotiations before they just create more bad blood.

On the ground, the longer the Americans delay, the more time the Iraqis have to prepare their defences, and the hotter it gets for troops sweltering in their protective chemical and biological weapons suits.

It must be a thick pile of papers on President Bush's desk as he weighs the competing issues.

He must be tempted to cut through the conflicting advice and order decisive action.

The situation may become clearer early next week.

Until then, anyone who predicts when a war might start is either a liar or the president of the United States.