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Thursday, 16 January, 2003, 20:46 GMT
Analysis: Endgame or further delay?
![]() The US continues its military build-up in the Gulf
By the end of January it should become clear whether we are in a countdown to war or whether the uncertainty will linger into February and March and even beyond.
They will urge the Iraqis to be more forthcoming and "pro-active" - especially about material unaccounted for when the inspectors left Iraq in 1998. Then on 27 January, Dr Blix reports to the United Nations Security Council. Marathon of meetings That meeting will partly be in public and his report is expected to be published.
In it he will give his assessment about the level of Iraqi compliance, whether he thinks Baghdad still has weapons of mass destruction and whether the inspection teams need more time to do their job. If he does ask for more time, most members of the Council would give it to him. If the United States opposed an extension, the Council would be split. On 28 January President Bush gives the annual State of the Union address to Congress, an obviously important platform for an exposition of the American position. Mr Bush has not taken a decision to go to war. But he has given himself the military options to allow for a quick decision. That speech will be followed on 29 January by a further and closed session of the Security Council at which the more considered views of the member states will be stated. This could be a key meeting, since the Blix report will be in and will have been studied.
Then on 31 January, Mr Bush will hold talks at Camp David with the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair. 'Unanswered questions' At any stage along this track, a "smoking gun" could be discovered in Iraq which would, under the terms of resolution 1441, trigger a new Security Council discussion and possibly a new resolution authorising war.
Rarely has such an international crisis been conducted with so many questions unanswered:
Siding with Bush Those expecting a war in due course will have had their fears strengthened by the recent hardening of rhetoric by Tony Blair to bring him into line with George Bush.
Mr Blair has joined Mr Bush in warning about the potential links between "rogue states" and international terrorist groups. President Bush has been talking about this for some time. Back in October, he said in Cincinnati: "Iraq could decide on any given day to provide a biological or chemical weapon to a terrorist group or individual terrorists." At a recent meeting of British diplomats in London, Mr Blair followed suit. "I warn people: it is only a matter of time before terrorists get hold of it [nuclear capability]. "So when, as with Iraq, the international community through the UN makes a demand on a regime to disarm itself of WMD [weapons of mass destruction] and that regime refuses, that regime threatens us." It is almost impossible for opponents to counter that argument since it is based on the unknown.
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16 Jan 03 | Middle East
16 Jan 03 | Middle East
15 Jan 03 | Middle East
16 Jan 03 | Politics
01 Oct 02 | Middle East
14 Jan 03 | Americas
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