UN prepares for huge Iraqi casualties

Humanitarian effects of war could be grave

Up to 500,000 people could suffer serious injuries during the first phase of an attack on Iraq, a confidential United Nations report says.

That includes up to 100,000 wounded in combat, and another 400,000 hurt in the devastation expected during any US-led attack on Iraq.

The resultant devastation would undoubtedly be great

UN report

The UN has confirmed the authenticity of the report, posted on the website of a Cambridge University group which opposes sanctions against Iraq.

The BBC UN correspondent says the United Nations has been somewhat embarrassed by the revelation of the details of its contingency planning, given that the exercise could be interpreted as an assumption that military action against Iraq is almost inevitable.

But UN officials have been quick to point out that such preparations are a practical measure, designed to ensure that UN agencies are prepared for whatever eventuality presents itself in the coming months.

Dependent people

The figures were based on estimates by the World Health Organization.

Almost a million might flee Iraq, says the report

They portray the Iraqi population of just over 26 million people as highly vulnerable to any action that would disrupt basic services, such as water, and electricity supplies and damage transport by road or rail.

The Iraqi population, the reports says, is extremely dependent on its government and aid agencies for almost all of its basic needs.

Unlike the situation prior to military intervention in Iraq in 1991, the reports says that in the present day many Iraqi people have exhausted their reserves of cash and material assets.

The normal safety nets have disappeared and this relatively sophisticated and urbanised population could struggle to cope in the face of a major military attack.

Refugee fears

The UN reports suggests that up to 10 million Iraqis may require assistance in the immediate aftermath of military intervention.

There are also concerns that military action would cause a huge refugee problem, with almost a million likely to flee to neighbouring countries.

Of these, 100,000 would need immediate assistance, the UN estimates.

There could be another two million internally displaced people. Relief agencies would find it very hard to offer them aid, if fighting was continuing, UN planners say.

"The outbreak of diseases in epidemic if not pandemic proportions is very likely," the report warns.