Analysis: Sharon's strategy

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has to tread with care

		By the BBC's Barbara Plett

The Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has told a German newspaper that Yasser Arafat is history.

A rather bold assessment, but it is true the Palestinian leader is a virtual prisoner in his own land, with tanks surrounding his offices in Ramallah.

One would think Ariel Sharon made his statement with a distinct feeling of satisfaction.

According to a defence analyst here, he is close to achieving a plan already worked out when he was elected 10 months ago.

That plan is based on two assumptions: that his long-time foe Yasser Arafat is not and never should have been a negotiating partner, and that the Oslo accord is a disaster that has to be eliminated.

Arafat cut off

To render Mr Arafat irrelevant as declared, Mr Sharon reportedly aims to physically cut the Palestinian leader off from his people, divide the West Bank and Gaza into cantons, and make separate agreements with dominant Palestinians in each area.

The Palestinian leader is a virtual prisoner in his own land

That is vintage Sharon. He has always preferred to deal with local Arab commanders, so that Israel can maintain overall control.

The Israeli prime minister has a window of opportunity after recent Palestinian attacks that killed large numbers of Israeli civilians.

In sympathy, the Americans are giving him time out to unleash his military machine against Mr Arafat.

Mr Sharon has to tread with care though - one misfired bomb could hit enough innocent casualties to unleash an international outcry and turn the tables.

Unfounded hope

Hence what is called here a "restrained escalation" - a gradual build-up of military pressure that stays within international red lines.

The plan has potential flaws, not least the largely unfounded hope of establishing new relationships with so called pragmatic Palestinian officials.

Although there is criticism of Mr Arafat's leadership among the ranks, it is almost unimaginable that someone would attempt to topple him at the best of times.

Now anyone who would try to would surely be denounced as a collaborator.