Analysis: End of the road for Arafat?

Israel has declared Mr Arafat 'irrelevant'

By Middle East analyst Gerald Butt

Yasser Arafat has never shirked danger, always believing that he was destined to survive into old age to complete his lifelong mission on behalf of the Palestinian people.

But this time, his sense of destiny might not be enough to save him. Cornered by the military power of Israel, his ability to act as a leader stripped from him, he may have no choice but to bow to the inevitable.

Mr Arafat is no stranger to the threat of death at the hands of the Israelis. And even his critics in the Palestinian community concede that he has always shown remarkable bravery.

Israel has launched military incursions into Palestinian areas

As a guerrilla fighter in the early 1970s, he led from the front in operations inside Israeli-controlled territory.

And his insistence on wearing military fatigues thereafter was meant to show the world that he saw himself first and foremost as a fighter.

One of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation's most testing experiences was during the siege of Beirut in 1982. With the Israelis ringing the city he kept on the move, never sleeping in the same building for two nights in a row.

Narrow escapes

As the western half of the city was pounded by the Israeli army and air force, Mr Arafat narrowly escaped on several occasions.

Then in Tripoli in northern Lebanon the following year, he stayed with his forces as they came under bombardment from dissident Palestinian groups backed by Syria.

Another close brush with death had nothing to do with hostile troops. In 1992, the PLO leader was in a plane that crashed in the Sahara desert during a sandstorm.

For some hours it was assumed that all on board had been killed. But while the crew lost their lives, Mr Arafat survived.

Those close to the Palestinian leader say that this event more than any other convinced him that it was his destiny to stay alive until he had achieved his goal of setting up a state for the Palestinians.

Potential dangers

Over recent months, with the violence becoming increasingly serious and his control of events less and less firm, Mr Arafat has faced dangers from another direction - from within his own community.

As he scuttled about the West Bank and Gaza Strip, his security men were looking out for potential attack from members of the Islamic militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad as much as from the Israeli forces.

Now the Israeli net is closing round Mr Arafat, never has his movement been so restricted.

Even if he stays alive, a point must surely come when he will question his value as a leader when he is politically isolated and paralysed.

Mr Arafat's only hope is for some kind of international intervention to help him - something akin to what happened to secure his safe retreat from Lebanon in 1982 and 1983.

Little help

The Arab world seems unable to provide that service.

And while the Europeans say they still recognise his leadership, there is little in the way of practical help they can provide. The only country with influence on Israel is the United States.

Until and unless the Bush administration feels it can justify putting pressure on its close ally, then Mr Arafat's future will be precarious to say the least.

For once, the old trickster seems to be at a loss to find another trick.

Gerald Butt is senior editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES)