Saudi monarchy looks to troubled future

The Saudi leadership still projects an image of stability

		By Frank Gardner BBC Middle East Correspondent

The Saudi Government is facing unprecedented challenges as it celebrates 20 years of King Fahd's reign.

Poverty and militant Islamism are on the rise in the country and the government may not be able to contain both.

The ruling Al-Saud family point to the achievements and stability that have kept them in power.

One of their leading members, Prince Salman, the Governor of Riyadh, was only too happy to talk of his government's successes.

"No one can say our achievements have been limited to just one thing. It's a complete process over 20 years," he said.

Optimistic: Prince Salman, the Governor of Riyadh

"We've achieved stability, big projects, security, and good relations with all countries. I put my trust in God, I have confidence. Everything I see all around me makes me very optimistic".

But others do not share his optimism. The fabulous oil wealth that has sustained the Al-saud's rule is now being spread ever thinner amongst a soaring population.

Poverty is creeping up on parts of Saudi society. And now, since 11 September, the government must contend with a resurgence of militant Islamism.

I went for a drive with a Saudi Islamist in a sensitive government position. He asked to remain anonymous, but said:

People are starving, working day and night, just to get hand-to-mouth

Saudi Islamist

"People are starving, working day and night, just to get hand-to-mouth. That's why we are expecting more and more terrorism to maybe take place here."

He told me that those who oppose the government have access to firearms. I asked him if they were prepared to use them.

"I'm sure of it. Yes. They need the leadership. They are ready."

So then I asked him if he thought the ruling family could depend on the armed forces.

"Not at all. They can't".

Radical groups

I asked a leading journalist with the government-controlled press, Jamal Khashoggi, what he thought of these claims. He said those who want violent change are in a minority.

"Unfortunately we are talking about radical groups which could be small in numbers but they make big news. There could be 10 Saudis somewhere plotting to do something and they will make big news. But they do not represent a strong segment of the society. They are alienated".

Saudi Arabia is one of the big economic powers of the Muslim world

A casual visitor to the capital, Riyadh, would see few signs of trouble. There are no demonstrations here. Most Saudis are law-abiding people, and there's a successful, urban middle class that would have much to lose if the Al-Saud's were toppled. But in this country as a whole, the population is swelling and unemployment is growing.

I went to see a leading Saudi financial advisor, Beshr Bakheet. He told me revenues were not keeping pace with population.

Economic woes

"Since the Saudi economy is still highly dependent on oil, and we have not yet been successful in diversifying out of oil, given the fact that oil prices have hardly gone up in the last 20 to 30 years in real terms, and the population has been growing at a high rate - one of the highest at 3.7% - as such you end up having a poorer society by each year."

Unemployment has led to rising crime across the country. It is still low by Western standards, but in this devout Muslim country, it is a sign of how desperate some people have become.

Ordinary Saudis are calling for a fairer distribution of wealth and a greater say in government

Traditionally in Saudi Arabia, people can take their grievances to their rulers. But the scale of poverty has grown too big for that to be a practical option.

In Saudi Arabia there is an unspoken contract between the ruling princes and those whom they rule.

The princes are supposed to provide for their people. In return, the loyal subjects are expected to forget about democracy.

While the money lasts, the arrangement works. But the money is not going as far as it used to.

So ordinary Saudis are calling for a fairer distribution of wealth and a greater say in government. If they get neither, then the opportunity for peaceful change may soon be lost.