Analysis: Sharon's remarks raise the stakes

The Israeli prime minister warned the US not to sacrifice Israel

By Middle East analyst Roger Hardy

The White House has reacted angrily to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's comments that the US risked appeasing Arab nations in its efforts to build an international coalition against terrorism.

President George Bush's spokesman Ari Fleischer called the remarks "unacceptable" and said the US view had been communicated to the Israelis.

Ariel Sharon's remarks are an unusually blunt challenge to President Bush.

They indicate that the Americans are going to find it extremely difficult to prevent the Middle East conflict complicating - perhaps even endangering - their efforts to win the maximum support from as many Arab and Muslim states as possible.

Dead letter

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has seldom seemed more intractable.

Even after American efforts had brought about a much-delayed meeting between the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, the agreement reached by the two men has proved a dead letter.

The violence which has already claimed more than 800 lives has increased - prompting Ariel Sharon to let the Israeli army use such measures as it thinks fit.

Israeli commentators expect this to mean the revival of the controversial policy of "targeted killings" - in plain language, the assassination of senior Palestinian figures regarded by the Israelis as instigators of terrorism.

On Tuesday President Bush expressed his support for the eventual creation of a Palestinian state, saying, with just a touch of exaggeration, that this had always been part of America's "vision" for the Middle East.

Blunt language

His remark has been welcomed throughout the Arab world. Even in Iran, a reformist newspaper called it a step forward.

In Israel officials initially brushed off Mr Bush's words, saying they represented nothing new.

But they quickly changed their minds, sensing that his remark heralded a shift in the US position in the Arabs' favour and at Israel's expense.

Mr Sharon's blunt language on Thursday signalled the degree of alarm now being felt in Israel.

The initial response from American Jews was also one of alarm.

The powerful pro-Israel lobby in Washington, AIPAC, made a thinly-veiled attack on Mr Bush's State Department which it regards as staunchly pro-Arab.

Those who were advising the president to support the creation of a Palestinian state, it declared, were "encouraging him to reward, rather than punish, those that harbour and support terrorism".

US next move

The Israelis point out that they are constantly under threat of attack

This echoes Mr Sharon's view that Yasser Arafat, like Osama Bin Laden, is a terrorist and America should be waging war on both.

Since then, however, more moderate American Jewish voices have entered the debate.

A letter to the White House signed by some 50 American Jewish figures, including officials from some prominent Jewish organisations, said Mr Bush had their support both in his war against terrorism and in his efforts to bring peace to the Middle East.

There is much speculation about what the administration will do now.

Arab ambassadors in Washington are expecting a major speech from either President Bush or Secretary of State Colin Powell setting out more fully the administration's "vision" for an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement.

'Spanner in the works'

They would like this to be followed up by the revival of the post of special Middle East envoy - a post scrapped by the Bush administration when it came into office.

Arabs hope the new envoy would take up the full-time job of trying to secure a genuine ceasefire, helping to monitor violations and gradually coaxing the two sides back to the negotiating table.

None of this will be easy or straightforward.

It is made considerably harder by Ariel Sharon's characteristically defiant attempt to throw a spanner into the works.