Increase in vCJD cases not a 'blip'

The final total of deaths could be as high as 140,000

Scientists say there has been a sustained rise in cases of variant CJD, the human form of "mad cow disease."

And people living in the north of England and Scotland are more than twice as likely to get the disease as those in the south.

This is a sustained pattern. We've had blips before ... this is not a blip

Professor James Ironside

They say they do not yet know what the total number of cases in the UK will be, but the worst case scenario of millions of people dying from vCJD can be dismissed.

The disease has already claimed the lives of more than 100 people in the UK, and scientists say its incidence increased by 20% last year.

There have been 15 confirmed cases so far this year, according to Department of Health figures.

Science minister Lord Sainsbury has joined scientists in calling on the food industry to provide information that could help the fight against the fatal brain disease.

Upward trend

Professor James Ironside, of the vCJD Surveillance Unit at Edinburgh University, presented research at the British Association Festival of Science at Glasgow University on Wednesday.

Professor James Ironside says the number of cases and deaths from vCJD are up by 20%

He said: "Moving from a flat pattern, we're now seeing an upward change. This is a sustained pattern. We've had blips before... this is not a blip."

He said much remained uncertain. "I think the scenario in which we see millions of cases is very unlikely," he said.

He told BBC News Online there was no clear explanation for why people in the north should be more susceptible to the disease.

Lack of information

"Presumably it relates to the amount of exposure to BSE through the diet," he said.

"But this is difficult to assess because of a lack of information on the type of foodstuffs BSE was likely to go into."

Another possibility was genetic factors, he said. He has found "no convincing evidence" that people caught the disease while working in an abattoir.

Meanwhile, the food industry has come under fire for not providing scientists with information about how much "mechanically recovered meat" (MRM) was used in the past.

The meat residue MRM, left on the carcass after the prime cuts are removed, is believed to carry the most risk of passing on BSE. The Spongiform Encephalopathy Advisory Committee (Seac) says it has been thwarted in its bid to get this information over the past five years.

Delay criticised

On Wednesday, Lord Sainsbury said everything must be done to get the scientists the information they needed.

Lord Sainsbury wants more information from food industry

"I don't know what the nature of the problem is, whether it is a question that the records don't exist or that the companies are saying we have got the records but we don't want to get that information," he said.

Bill Jermey, President of the Meat Manufacturers' Association, told the BBC that they had written to Seac saying that they wished to co-operate but he added that information on where exactly MRM had been supplied was not available.

Last month, the Food Standards Agency (FSA) launched a new investigation.

Professor Ironside said the origins of vCJD were still a mystery.

He said he favoured the theory that cattle had been fed carcasses of sheep with a mutated form of the disease scrapie.