Analysis: Bush counsels Bush

Father and son pictured in 1968

By US affairs analyst Ben Wright

There are only six people alive in the world who know what it is really like to be president of the United States.

Lonely decisions of huge importance, such as whether to send US troops into action, are ultimately taken by the president and it is he who must take final responsibility for them.

Now President George W Bush is facing perhaps the most difficult presidential situation since Kennedy sparred with Khrushchev over Cuban missiles in 1962.

However, he is in the unique position of being able to take close counsel from the last president to send significant US forces to war - his father George HW Bush.

The president is facing a stern test

It is known that the two men are close. They are publicly very proud of each other and George W is known to greatly admire and respect the values and opinions of his father.

During the election, the younger Bush was thought to be driven partly by a desire to pay back the Democrats for taking the presidency from his father in 1992, and there is a sense that they now feel the presidency is back where it belongs.

In July, the two presidents were spotted on a golf course wearing hats numbered 41 and 43 - showing where they fit in the history of US presidents.

Shadow looms

But what no-one except a handful of White House staffers knows for sure is the extent of political influence the old president has over the new. It is a source of endless press speculation that the White House tries its best to snuff out.

Yet the political shadow of the first Bush presidency looms large over the present administration.

The key personnel are almost all veterans of Bush Senior's government.

Gulf War architects such as Colin Powell and Dick Cheney are back in place, preparing a US response which could include another confrontation with Iraq.

Bush Senior has the experience to offer his son

The CIA investigation is based in the George Bush Centre for Intelligence, named after the former CIA director and president.

The CIA's current director, George Tenet, is also close to Bush Senior.

There is some evidence of the president's father directly shaping current policy too.

In June, the New York Times revealed that former President Bush was instrumental in persuading his son to revive diplomatic dialogue with North Korea.

Spy-plane row

Through aides, he forwarded to his son a memo from a former US ambassador to South Korea arguing for a more moderate stance towards Pyongyang.

The first months of the George W presidency had seen the US take a harder line with North Korea.

Talks over missiles were suspended and a review of relations put in place. Perhaps because of the intervention, the White House position changed and talks resumed.

It is also thought that there was substantial paternal input from Bush Senior (a former US ambassador to China) during the spy-plane stand-off with Beijing.

However, it would perhaps be odd for a former ambassador to the UN, director of the CIA, vice president and president not to offer advice on policy and there can be few statesman as well connected as George H W Bush.

Stark parallels

The problem for George W would be if the public began to perceive him as a puppet president.

So far though, he has seemed very comfortable with the association, even paraphrasing his father's Gulf War declaration that aggression "will not stand" in the wake of the September 11 attacks.

Parallels between the Bush presidencies are already stark.

Both had to confront war, both had to focus on the Gulf region, both had to build coalitions of international support' and both had to govern at time when the economy was vulnerable to recession.

It will be years until it is known for sure how influential the first Bush was over the actions of the second Bush presidency.

However, Bush Senior undoubtedly offers valuable emotional support to his son and advice on how to handle the strains of office.

After all, although George W Bush currently has an approval rating unmatched since his father's at the end of the Gulf War, number 41 knows only too well just how fickle the electorate is and how vulnerable the poll numbers can be.