Gore fights back in polls

Voters are warming to Al Gore

By US affairs analyst Gordon Corera

Many pundits thought - and Republicans hoped - that Al Gore's bounce in the polls coming out of the conventions would not last.

But Texan Governor George W. Bush has failed to recapture his lead and all the signs are that Gore is now inching ahead.

You can see the first signs of fear amongst Republicans whilst the Gore-Lieberman double act are oozing confidence on the campaign trail.

But the temptation of campaign watchers is always to imagine that the current state of affairs is set in stone, when in reality the roller-coaster ride of the campaign is far from over.

During the primary season, Bush took some huge blows - crushed by rival John McCain by a margin no-one expected in New Hampshire and defeated later in Michigan and other states. But he retooled his campaign and got back into gear cruising to a comfortable victory in the end.

George Bush still leads on personality

Equally, Gore has looked in trouble many times. At the start of the year it seemed Bill Bradley might give him a real run for his money and in the three months after he wrapped up the nomination he has often looked weak and many wrote him off.

What many Gore advisers had predicted was that as the country focused more on the campaign they would warm more and more to Gore, particularly since they would start focusing on the specifics of policy and issues. This is an area where Gore is perceived as stronger, rather than on the fuzzy terrain of personality, where Bush has an advantage.

This is happening to some extent, and core Democrats are also coming home to Gore, as the election - and the possibility of a President Bush - draws nearer. This is a trend also reflected in declining support for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader.

Last-minute decisions

Gore is also now benefiting from a massive gender gap - a more than 20-point difference between men and women in how they would vote. Some of these trends should continue to work for Gore in the coming months but a Bush counter-attack is already on its way as the Republican aims to spend more time making himself accessible to ordinary people.

There is still plenty of potential for movement in the race

Perceptions change fast and one of the problems for Gore is that in the past he has relaxed when on top and let some of his momentum dissipate.

And there is still much to play for. Normal polls may show the candidates neck and neck, but the Vanishing Voter study by Harvard University picks up something that others have missed - one third of all Americans have yet to focus on the race and one in four registered voters have still not picked a candidate and are not yet even leaning towards either candidate.

And the thinking is that many of these people will not even start to pay close attention until October when the Olympic games finish and the presidential debates start. In 1996, about 20% of those who voted decided in the last two weeks of the campaign and 7% only made up their mind on election day itself.

What all this means is that there is still plenty of potential for movement in the race between now and 7 November and plenty of opportunity for the lead to change hands once again.

For Al Gore, resting on his laurels may be the biggest danger right now.