Race hots up for Annan's successor

By Mike Wooldridge
BBC News, UN, New York

Behind the scenes at the UN General Assembly now under way in New York, the manoeuvring over who will succeed Kofi Annan as secretary general at the end of this year is intensifying.

Many believe that it's Asia's "turn" to hold the UN's top job

South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon has received fresh backing from the Security Council in his bid for the post.

He came out on top in the second of the "straw polls" held to test support for the candidates.

In fact, according to Council members, the order of the top three was the same as in the first straw poll which took place in July.

In number two position is UN official Shashi Tharoor of India and third ,Thai Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai.

Fourth in the running now is Jordan's ambassador to the United Nations, Prince Zeid al-Hussein - a new entrant - and in fifth place Jayantha Dhanapala of Sri Lanka, a former head of the UN disarmament department.

The options before those taking part in the straw polls are to encourage, discourage or give no opinion about each candidate.

It's likely that soon one or more of the declared candidates will drop out and other, potentially stronger, candidates who have held back to watch the outcome of the straw polls could enter the race.

Former UN secretary-generals Boutros Boutros-Ghali, Egypt: 1992-1996 Javier Perez de Cuellar, Peru: 1982-1991 Kurt Waldheim, Austria: 1971-1981 U Thant, Burma: 1961-1971 Dag Hammarskjöld, Sweden: 1953-1961 Trygve Lie, Norway: 1946-1952

The 192-member General Assembly elects the secretary-general -- but on the recommendation of the Security Council.

It has to be someone who will not be vetoed by any of the five permanent members of the Council.

New campaigning

Asia has not had a secretary general since Burma's U Thant completed his second term in 1971 and it has been generally accepted that it is Asia's turn this time.

The process might look much the same and just about as secretive as when Kofi Annan was chosen to be the world's chief diplomat, but there is an effort this time to make it more inclusive.

Several of the candidates appeared at meetings of the General Assembly regional groups.

They also took part in gatherings of bodies like the Forum of Small States between July and August to outline their vision of what they would hope to achieve as secretary-general.

To James Traub, whose book on Kofi Annan and the UN is being published shortly, it has meant that there has been campaigning by the candidates this time of a kind that has not taken place before.

Countries big and small are feeding back their responses to the Security Council members.

Can Kofi Annan help to resolve Darfur's problems before he steps down?

Few figures are more in the public eye than a United Nations secretary general but there is a common tendency to over-romanticise the office, according to Mr Traub.

These days, with the focus so often on trying to prevent conflicts breaking out and reinforcing peace agreements, the secretary general is often seen flying around the world undertaking this kind of initiative.

But Mr Traub says we tend to assume he has much more power to influence events than is usually the case.

That said, Mr Traub does believe that during Kofi Annan's tenure new ways of thinking about the issues to do with peace and security have been emerging.

He also believes the development debate has shifted from often polarising rhetoric in the past to a more pragmatic approach in which the United Nations has a bigger role.

A key issue has been the UN's commitment to the responsibility to protect civilians in strife-torn countries.

It is one of the developments born out of the genocide in Rwanda a decade ago and a commitment that could hardly be tested more obviously today than in Sudan's troubled Darfur region.

How the current standoff between Sudan and the Security Council over the sending in of UN peacekeepers turns out will inevitably be one of the major issues of this General Assembly.

It will also become part of Kofi Annan's legacy and it could well be one of the most demanding of the many challenges his successor will inherit - whoever that might be.