Critical care beds shortage fear

There are 300 intensive care beds for children

There could be a shortage of intensive care beds for children this winter because of swine flu, experts say.

Cambridge University researchers used official government predictions to look at how UK hospitals would cope.

They said during a peak week half of the 300-plus beds could be taken up by flu patients, putting strain on units that are often running close to full.

But the government said the NHS should be able to cope - albeit with some emergency measures put in place.

The Tories have already raised concerns about intensive care preparations.

While the pandemic virus has been mild for many, an increasing number are ending up in hospital and this has begun to filter through to intensive care.

Paediatric intensive care will be one of the first areas of the NHS to feel the pressure Dr Roddy O'Donnell, lead researcher

The under fives are the age group most likely to need such treatment and with the government estimating a third of chlildren may be infected this winter the researchers decided to look at how hospitals would cope.

They warned that the peak week in winter could test the health service to the limit, the Archives of Disease in Childhood journal reported.

They estimated that 49% of beds across the 25 regional centres could be taken up by swine flu patients. At the moment under 10% are.

For a service which normally has three quarters of its beds full this could prove to be a tipping point.

Some regions could come under particular pressure. For example, the south east coast region, which only has one unit in Brighton, could see fives times as many patients as it has beds for, the report pointed out.

Lead researcher Dr Roddy O'Donnell said: "Paediatric intensive care will be one of the first areas of the NHS to feel the pressure.

"The peak could put a real strain on hospitals and will require contingencies to be put in place.

"Patients may not get the same level of nursing as they normally would."

Emergency measures

The government has ordered hospitals to draw up plans to double the number of intensive care beds.

Plans are in place for adult services, but child units have found this more difficult.

Nonetheless, the Department of Health said the health service should be able to cope by taking emergency steps such as moving patients around the country and cancelling elective operations.

"Swine flu doesn't always affect every region in the same way at the same time.

"So, different regions are geared up to support each other and use one another's facilities where necessary."

The study comes as a BBC poll suggested many people still have concerns about the vaccine that is being offered to the most vulnerable patients.

The survey of more than 2,000 people found nearly half had doubts about whether to be immunised.

Safety was the major concern of those - despite the fact the vaccines being used have been through clinical trials and approved by the official European drugs regulator.