Swine flu 'could still shoot up'

Sir Liam Donaldson: "It is the start of the second peak"

The gradual rise in swine flu cases is continuing, but the government's chief medical officer says there could still be an explosion in the coming weeks.

There were 14,000 new cases in England last week - up from 9,000 the week before - while in Scotland it went up from just over 7,000 to 13,800.

But the figure is short of the rapid doubling which was feared.

Sir Liam Donaldson said while the second peak was on its way, the vaccine programme should be starting soon.

He said GPs were preparing to start calling people in during the second half of October.

There is a steady rate of increase, but there is no sign of the explosive surge you can see in a pandemic Sir Liam Donaldson, chief medical officer Read Fergus Walsh's blog

Priority groups, including those with underlying health conditions such as heart disease and pregnant women, will receive the jab first.

Health and social care staff are also earmarked to be among this first wave.

Sir Liam said he was pleased to be getting near to the start of the immunisation programme without seeing the large increases which saw more than 100,000 new cases diagnosed a week at one point during the summer.

"There is a steady rate of increase, but there is no sign of the explosive surge you can see in a pandemic."

But he added: "There is still time for that to happen."

Intensive care

As well as the rise in cases, the number of people in hospital has also gone up slightly.

In England it now stands at 286, compared to 218 last week.

Some 36 of those are in intensive care.

More evidence has also emerged of the sort of patients who end up needing hospital care.

A random sample of 192 patients showed that one in four patients have asthma, 15% have heart disease and 10% have diabetes.

However, among the young - under fives - eight in 10 do not have any form of underlying health condition.

There have also been two more deaths in England and one more in Scotland during the past seven days, bringing the UK total to 85.

Meanwhile the government has also announced that the number of specialised beds to treat people with severe lung failure will be doubled for adults, from five beds to 10 at a specialist unit in Leicester.