'Flu-like illnesses set to peak'

Flu vaccines may help explain why rates in recent years have been low

The number of people seeing GPs in England for flu-like illnesses is set to peak in the next couple of weeks, experts predict.

There were 41 cases per 100,000 in the first week of January - the highest rate since the flu season started in October.

The Health Protection Agency that gathers the data said the rates were still lower than in previous years.

Rates typically increase for two to three weeks before dropping again.

We would expect admission rates to go up over the next few weeks. Dr Douglas Fleming, director of the Royal College of GPs' Birmingham Research Unit

Between the Christmas week and the week following, the rate of flu-like illnesses dropped from 30 per 100,000 to 23 per 100,000.

During a typical flu season levels can reach anywhere between 30 and 200 consultations per 100,000.

Epidemic activity is classified as 200 or more consultations per 100,000.

The flu rate for last year peaked at 62.3 per 100,000 in November 2003, and stayed at or above 50 per 100,000 for four weeks before declining back to baseline levels.

Dr Douglas Fleming, director of the Royal College of GPs' Birmingham Research Unit, said: "We will always have high rates of hospital admissions for respiratory illness over the winter period.

"We would expect admission rates to go up over the next few weeks."

For the past few years flu levels in England have remained relatively low.

Dr Fleming said this was partly due to increased standards of hygiene, reduced levels of smoking and increased uptake of flu vaccination.

Dr John Watson, head of the Respiratory Diseases Department of the HPA, said flu activity was unpredictable and it was difficult to estimate how great any peak might be.

"For the majority of people, flu is not life-threatening, however unpleasant it might be.

"It can be more dangerous for those in at-risk groups, such as the elderly and patients with heart problems, diabetes or asthma, or those who are immuno-compromised, who are at risk of developing complications from their influenza virus infection.

"It is important that people in these at-risk groups take up the offer of influenza vaccination."