Predicting the future

It is hard to predict precisely the prognosis of an individual cancer patient.

This is because so many different factors can affect the chances of a particular patient surviving the disease.

Below are the latest (September 2003) survival rates for common cancers in England, Scotland and Wales.

They are an average taken from the outcome of large numbers of cancer patients, so can only be seen as a rough guide.

Cancer survival: Men
% rates five years after diagnosis
	England	Scotland	Wales
Bladder	69.3	67.6	70.9
Breast	70.3	71.5	66.2
Colorectal	44.8	44.1	40.1
Kidney	42.3	38.9	35.4
Leukaemias	35.2	33.2	32.3
Lung	7.4	7.0	8.0
Lymphoma (Non Hodgkin's)	46.1	41.0	41.6
Melanoma	73.8	79.2	63.1
Oesophagus	8.3	6.3	8.0
Pancreas	4.2	3.0	6.0
Prostate	53.8	53.6	48.8
Stomach	12.8	9.9	9.9
Testicular	93.6	92.0	88.8
Source: Eurocare 3 study (2003)

Cancer survival: Women
% rates five years after diagnosis
	England	Scotland	Wales
Bladder	64.1	59.7	64.9
Breast	73.6	72.3	69.5
Cervical	63.8	60.6	58.7
Colorectal	46.6	46.7	38.2
Kidney	41.4	39.1	34.5
Endometrial	73.7	71.8	70.8
Leukaemias	37.7	36.5	35.4
Lung	7.7	6.8	7.5
Lymphoma (non-Hodgkin's)	50.7	47.6	49.8
Melanoma	85.6	90.1	79.1
Oesophagus	11.8	10.0	7.3
Ovary	31.5	30.1	29.1
Pancreas	4.4	3.2	5.9
Source: Eurocare 3 study (2003)

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There are various factors that might make survival rates higher or lower for an individual patient.

Age

For some cancers at least, the higher the age of the patient at diagnosis, the less the chance of five-year-survival.

For example, for breast cancer in women, the European average 5-year survival for 45-54-year-olds is 81% - for 55 to 64-year-olds it falls to 75%.

This, of course, may not be due to the cancer - a 50-year-old patient is more likely to die from other natural causes over then next five years compared with a 40-year-old.

Stage at diagnosis

Some patients will have more advanced cancer, with a larger tumour or affecting more parts of the body by the time treatment commences.

This can have an impact on the likely success of treatment.

Where you live

There are fairly wide variations between cancer survival rates between different European countries.

However, there are also wide variations in survival even between different health authorities in the UK.

This may be due to differences in the treatment offered - or reflect, perhaps, the length of time it takes to get diagnosed in different parts of the country.

There may also be an influence from the general underlying health of different populations.

For example, lung cancer five year survival is just over 2% in Northumberland - and almost 9% in Kensington and Chelsea.

Different cancer types

Obviously, there is a big difference in survival between testicular cancer and lung cancer - but even within particular types of cancer, there are subtypes.

Some may be more aggressive than others - which could make them harder to treat, more likely to recur or likely to be at a more advanced stage at diagnosis.

This page is intended to offer only very general information. For more specific information, contact your doctor.