HIV cases set to soar

Robbie Williams uses a wrecking ball to break a symbolic 'wall of silence'

Experts have forecast a 40% rise in the number of people diagnosed with HIV in England and Wales over the next four years.

The worrying prediction came as the government pledged an extra £41m towards tackling the virus over the same period in England.

People must heed the safer sex messages and act upon them

Dr Barry Evans, PHLS

Surveys taken to mark World Aids Day on Friday have shown the young are becoming more complacent about the risks of HIV from unprotected sex.

Compared to a similar survey last year, there were 11% fewer 15 to 24-year-olds telling researchers that the threat of the Aids virus had influenced their lifestyle.

The British HIV Association now says heterosexuals who are unknowingly carrying the virus present the greatest challenge to health workers.

On Friday pop star Robbie Williams used a wrecking ball mounted on a crane to smash a symbolic "wall of silence" surrounding the issue of Aids.

The latest forecasts from the Public Health Laboratory Service (PHLS) paints a gloomy picture of steadily rising HIV infections in England and Wales.

At the beginning of the year, there were 20,800 living with the infection - with last year seeing record numbers of HIV diagnoses.

By the end of 2003, say the PHLS, there will be 29,000 diagnosed HIV cases.

Aids deaths falling

While this partly reflects the fact that modern drugs can keep HIV patients alive for much longer, it also means that education campaigns are not reaching everyone.

Improved treatments have cut the UK death toll

The actual number of Aids-related deaths fell by two-thirds between 1995 and 1999.

Dr Barry Evans, said: "It is important to remember that although we have drugs that can help prevent the progression of HIV - people must heed the safer sex messages and act upon them."

The extra £41m is being distributed to health authorities in England to pay for both treatment and the care of people who have developed Aids.

Public Health Minister Yvette Cooper said: "Although the UK has a relatively low prevalence of HIV/Aids compared to some of our nearest European neighbours, and other industrialised countries, it is vital we do not let up on our efforts to stop the spread of HIV."

Information website

The government is also backing a dedicated HIV/Aids information site which will form part of NHS Direct Online.

Ministers plan to publish a full sexual health and HIV Strategy towards the end of the year.

For the first time, it is thought that the majority of those carrying the virus are heterosexual - approximately 50% compared with an estimated 30% of cases which can be found among homosexual men.

Dr Margaret Johnson, secretary of the British HIV Association, said: "Most of these people are from countries that have a high incidence of HIV, such as those in Africa."

Earlier this week, UNAids released figures suggesting that the number of new infections in sub-Saharan Africa had stabilised.

However, this was suggested to be the result of the fact that so many in the key age groups carry the infection that in some countries, the "pool" of people at risk of infection is falling.

The UNAids report highlighted soaring HIV infection rates in Russia and eastern Europe, as well as some parts of Asia.