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Wednesday, May 5, 1999 Published at 13:41 GMT 14:41 UK


Welsh opinion polls

Opinion Polls
Recent Polls

The few opinion polls that have been conducted in Wales suggest that Labour will be the largest party in the Welsh Assembly - and that the real question is whether it will win an overall majority.

The party consistently polled above 50% of the vote, occasionally touching 60%, in the early stages of the campaign.

The most recent poll puts Labour under that level, but with just enough strength to win outright.

Plaid Cymru is showing in second place in the polls. Most of its strength is in the north of the country.

The Conservatives are generally shown as being ahead of the Liberal Democrats in terms of popular support, but the latter sometimes do better in the regional top-up votes.

Opinion polls have a margin of error of +/- 3%.

The Figures
Date - 5 May Lab PC Con LD
FPTP 47 26 14 10
Top - Up 38 29 13 15
Fieldwork - Apr 29-May 2 Sample Size - 1501 Phone
Company - NOP HTV
Date - 30 Mar Lab PC Con LD
FPTP 54 21 13 12
Top - Up 42 29 13 14
Fieldwork - 4 Mar - 8 Mar Sample Size - 971 Face to Face
Company - Beaufort Newspaper - Western Mail
Date - 11 Mar Lab PC Con LD
FPTP 51 23 16 8
Top - Up 44 25 16 12
Fieldwork - 25 Feb - 28 Feb Sample Size - 1015 Face to Face
Company - Beaufort Commisioner - BBC Wales
Date - 12 Feb Lab PC Con LD
FPTP 54 20 16 9
Top - Up 45 24 16 12
Fieldwork - 4 Feb - 10 Feb Sample Size - 1501 Phone
Company - NOP Commisioner - HTV
Date - 23 Dec Lab PC Con LD
FPTP 59 18 14 8
Top - Up 53 20 15 9
Fieldwork - 19 Nov - 26 Nov Sample Size - 962 Face to Face
Company - Beaufort Newspaper - Western Mail
Date - 25 Nov Lab PC Con LD
FPTP 62 18 12 7
Top - Up 48 24 12 14
Fieldwork - 12 Nov - 19 Nov Sample Size - 1002 Face to Face
Company - Beaufort Commissioner - BBC Wales
Date - 1 Oct Lab PC Con LD
FPTP 57 19 12 8
Top - Up 52 19 13 11
Fieldwork - 3 - 5 Sep Sample Size - 992 Face to Face
Company - Beaufort Newspaper - Western Mail
Date - 18 Sep Lab PC Con LD
FPTP 50 24 16 8
Top - Up 44 23 17 15
Fieldwork - 10 Sep - 15 Sep Sample Size - 1500 Phone
Company - NOP Commissioner - HTV
Date - 16 Jul Lab PC Con LD
FPTP 56 20 14 9
Top - Up 44 22 13 18
Fieldwork - 3 Jul - 9 Jul Sample Size - 1008 Face to Face
Company - Beaufort Commissioner - BBC Wales




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