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Thursday, December 17, 1998 Published at 21:53 GMT
Codename Euroland ![]() So what's going in Euroland? Fearless and armed with a handful of petty cash, BBC News Online's special investigator set out to unearth the explosive secrets of the immediate economic future.
I knew something big was going on. I knew it would happen in two weeks time and people were getting worried...
The project - codename Euroland - would affect 300 million people. A previously unknown group, the European Central Bank , was pulling the strings. I'd been told it was the greatest economic experiment ever.
Richard Portes, from the Centre for Economic Policy Research, chimed in: "This will be a monetary area the size and weight of America in the world economy and the ECB will have to reflect that."
I quickly sussed out that a close-knit group of six is at the centre of power.
And there is a Dutchman, their leader, Wim Duisenberg. They call him "the president".
Once a fortnight they are joined by 11 others - governors of national central banks. All up they are 17 people, each of them has one vote. This is Euroland's governing council.
I put my point directly:
But just across the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland it's a different story. The people in Ireland have just two weeks before they hand over control of their interest rates.
For Brian MacDonald today is moving day, he's taking on a new mortgage and, with his wife Deirdre, is moving to a bigger house. But how much do they know about project Euroland and the fact that from January there'll be a single interest rate set in Frankfurt, not Dublin?
The MacDonalds don't realise it but the European Central Bank is already part of their lives. On the very day they moved, interest rates came down to 3%.
Jim Powers told me he was one of the doubters: "I think the Irish people don't realise at this stage that from next January 17 people, including one Irish person, will be making the interest rate decisions for Ireland in Frankfurt, and Ireland, at the end of the day, will have very little influence over the levels of interest rates which we will have to live with. I think there is not a realisation of that and once that realisation strikes home I think people could be in for a little bit of a shock."
Europe has brought the people here in Ireland nothing but good times. But a single interest rate, decided elsewhere, is a difficult concept to grasp.
O'Connell told me: "I don't think it's appropriate that you should be announcing how each person may have voted, I think you're creating other pressures then, you're creating pressure on individual members to reflect just the national situation, the national viewpoint, where we are required under this treaty to take a European perspective on things."
One thing was becoming clear to me now. This treaty, the Maastricht Treaty, had a lot to answer for. It had created a powerful bank ... and deliberately put it out of the reach of politicians.
The Bank's independence is guaranteed by the Treaty.
The Bank says it will report to Parliament more often than that, but critics say this is still not good enough.
"There is an obligation for the governor to turn up at the European Parliament from time to time, but what he has to say, and how he says it, and the nature of the topics he has to cover and so forth, this is not prescribed in any way. He can turn up and read a statement, answer a couple of questions and leave." And another question needed an answer: How would the Bank, and the people at the top, react in a crisis? Some say the Bank may have inbuilt design faults, with 11 national interests delaying quick decisions, executives being outvoted by national governors and no power to supervise or rescue banks, in the way the Bank of England or US Federal Reserve can.
But can 3% be the right interest rate for both a booming economy like Ireland's and a sluggish one like Germany's? And anyway, why worry about inflation when Europe's biggest economic problem is unemployment?
Frankfurt has a tradition of attracting foreign workers, but as Barbara is finding out now, the jobs have dried up. One in three of the unemployed is an immigrant.
Dublin doesn't have enough workers, so it welcomes those from overseas. These chambermaids come from Italy. Ireland's economy is attracting people from all over Europe for whom there are few job opportunities back at home. Dublin's spectacular growth is a clear sign of how different economies are being squeezed together. In Dublin alone there has been a 20% increase in the number of hotels.
Jim Power concludes: "I think it's going to be very difficult to get one interest rate to suit all. Clearly the level of interest rates which Ireland will inherit from Germany is not suitable for the economy and I think other regions throughout Euroland will experience pretty similar conditions over the coming years and that could ultimately result in pockets of high unemployment in certain regions of Europe and it is going to be very difficult for the ECB to set a level of interest rates to prevent that from happening."
One way or another, the die is cast. The Irish and 291 million others enter a new economic era in the new year. Its a great experiment, being masterminded in Frankfurt, and they are the guinea pigs.
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