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Friday, January 1, 1999 Published at 10:08 GMT
New horizons for the euro investor ![]() The Frankfurt sharemarket, accessible to all in the eurozone Investors living in the eurozone have entered a new world with a much broader investment horizon. It is a world of wider choice, greater certainty, and if the right decisions are made, better growth and higher returns. Investors big or small are always more comfortable investing at home. But the domestic market is being redefined under the single currency. It is an enormous business environment, not unlike the US. The biggest change when you move from investing in your own country to investing across borders is the added risk from exchange rate fluctuations. A good stock on a foreign sharemarket returning 10% is not much good if your currency loses 10% of its value in the meantime, cancelling out your gains. This risk factor has now gone in the eurozone.
And with all investments quoted in euros not only is risk reduced but certainty is increased, allowing investors to compare more easily the prices and performance of all securities across the eurozone. This is only the beginning. Plans are underway for a pan-European stockmarket where stocks in the eurozone and even surrounding countries like the UK will be traded on one electronic exchange. Interest returns But the most obvious impact on investors comes from the conversion of 11 different interest rate regimes into one common system. This convergence process was almost complete as early as December 1998, with official interest rates cut to 3% in all countries except for Italy, which joined just before Christmas. It brought an end to large variations in rates which European fixed-interest investors had previously been able to exploit. Now bonds with similar maturity and quality will offer uniform returns. But the concept that a Spanish Government bond is equivalent to one backed by Germany's Bundesbank will initially be a hard one for many investors to accept. The end result: The current low inflation, low interest rate environment is a greater incentive for investors to look elsewhere for high returns - toward growth investments like shares. Single market However, the euro should mean shares offer a better performance overall.
It will be easier for companies to run a multinational operation with reduced administrative costs, no exchange rate uncertainty and more opportunities for expansion. This was the rationale for the whole idea of monetary union in the first place with many analysts now predicting a long period of above average sharemarket growth. Some say Europe will become a 'shareholder society' like the United States. Funds benefit With greater choice of stocks available fund managers should have more balanced portfolios which should mean higher returns for the same amount of risk, said Peter Sullivan, European equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. "For example, in the old world there was no pure oil stock in Germany, so fund managers had to look to the Dutch or French market for an oil company, introducing more risk," Mr Sullivan said. Now fund managers can consider a much wider range of firms in any sector. The downside But all this is a double-edged sword for share investors. There will be winners and losers as some companies get it right and expand while others buckle under the pressure and lose their markets. Investors will need to be on their guard. The difference between a poor share performer and a good one will be magnified. Many say this gap will make for more volatile profit performances among different companies. Euroland has more to offer its investors - but to reap the benefits they must make good investment decisions. |
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