Europe South Asia Asia Pacific Americas Middle East Africa BBC Homepage World Service Education



Front Page

World

UK

UK Politics

Business

Sci/Tech

Health

Education

Sport

Entertainment

Talking Point

In Depth

On Air

Archive
Feedback
Low Graphics
Help

Wednesday, May 5, 1999 Published at 12:37 GMT 13:37 UK


Scottish opinion polls

Opinion Polls
Recent Polls

The final opinion polls of the campaign have continued to suggest that Labour will be the largest party in the new parliament, but will probably be short of an overall majority.

Polls conducted late last year and early this placed Labour and its main rival, the SNP, very close together, with Labour usually marginally ahead.

In April, Labour appeared to be drawing away with leads of between 10 and 20 percentage points.

But more recent surveys have shown some reversal of that trend, particularly in the top-up votes, which seem to be much closer.

All polls have had the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats locked close together in a private contest for third and fourth place.

None of the polls conducted so far has given Labour enough seats to form a government without support from another party.

Possible outcome

The exact outcome is, of course, difficult to predict - and is made more complicated by the use of a new voting system.

However, even if Labour emulates the massive 45.6% of the vote it received during its 1997 general election triumph, it appears unlikely to win the 65 seats it needs for an overall majority.

One key factor in this conclusion is that in 1997 the SNP won only 22.1% of the vote and is polling consistently higher now. The polls have shown far stronger support for the SNP in elections for the Scottish Parliament than for Westminster.

In addition, Labour's 1997 figure must be put in the context of the 42.5% it received at the 1994 Euro-elections and the 39.0% of the 1992 general election.

Opinion polls are generally regarded as having a margin of error of +/- 3%.

Try Vote99's Virtual Election, where you can use your own figures to find out who might win what on 6 May.

The Figures
Date - 05 May Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 46.8 28.3 12.4 12.5
Top - Up 42.2 30 12.7 15.1
Fieldwork - 1-4 May Sample Size - 1108 Phone
Company - Scottish Opinion Ltd Newspaper - Daily Record
Date - 05 May Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 42 30 14 12
Top - Up 41 30 14 10
Fieldwork - 2-3 May Sample Size - 1005 Phone
Company - ICM Newspaper - The Scotsman
Date - 04 May Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 46 31 13 8
Top - Up 36 32 14 10
Fieldwork - 30 April - 2 May Sample Size - 750 Phone
Company - NOP Newspaper - The Express
Date - 02 May Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 44 31 13 10
Top - Up 40 31 11 14
Fieldwork - 28-29 April Sample Size - 1000 Phone
Company - ICM Newspaper - Scotland on Sunday
Date - 02 May Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 48 33 8 9
Top - Up 44 33 9 10
Fieldwork - 27-29 April Sample Size - 1000 Phone
Company - Mori Newspaper - Sunday Herald
Date - 02 May Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 45 30 13 9
Top - Up 38 32 12 11
Fieldwork - N/A Sample Size - N/A Phone
Company - NOP Newspaper - Sunday Times
Date - 01 May Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 45.6 32.1 11.6 10.6
Top - Up 39 33.9 11.1 16
Fieldwork - 26-30 April Sample Size - 1198 Phone
Company - Scottish Opinion Ltd Newspaper - Daily Record
Date - 29 Apr Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 44 33 10 10
Top - Up 37 34 10 13
Fieldwork - 22-27 April Sample Size - 984 Phone
Company - System Three Newspaper - The Herald
Date - 29 Apr Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 44.5 25.5 13.9 16.1
Top - Up 41.3 29.6 11.9 17.2
Fieldwork - 31 March -27 April Sample Size - 4108 Phone
Company - Scottish Opinion Ltd. Newspaper - Daily Record
Date - 26 Apr Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 47 29 12 10
Top - Up 46 28 12 11
Fieldwork - 22-23 April Sample Size - 1116 Phone
Company - ICM Newspaper - The Scotsman
Date - 22 Apr Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 47.9 32.4 12.3 7.4
Top - Up 48.1 31.7 12.3 7.9
Fieldwork - 14-20 April Sample Size - 1006 Phone
Company - Scottish Opinion Ltd Newspaper - Daily Record
Date - 22 Apr Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 45 26 11 13
Top - Up 40 27 12 14
Fieldwork - 16-18 April Sample Size - 3255 Phone
Company - System Three Newspaper - The Herald
Date - 20 Apr Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 49 28 9 11
Top - Up 44 32 9 10
Fieldwork - 16-18 April Sample Size - 750 Phone
Company - NOP Newspaper - The Express
Date - 12 Apr Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 46 30 13 10
Top - Up 43 32 11 11
Fieldwork - 9-10 April Sample Size - 1006 Phone
Company - ICM Newspaper - The Scotsman
Date - 11 Apr Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 46 33 11 8
Top - Up 42 33 12 11
Fieldwork - 6-8 April Sample Size - 1004 Phone
Company - NOP Newspaper - Sunday Times
Date - 8 Mar Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 39 39 11 11
Top - Up 40 36 10 12
Fieldwork - 25 Feb - 3 Mar Sample Size - 982 Face to Face
Company - System 3 Newspaper - Herald
Date - 4 Mar Lab SNP Con LD
FPTP 44 34 12 9
Top - Up 41 33 13 11
Fieldwork - 28 Feb - 1 Mar Sample Size - 1005 Phone
Company - ICM Newspaper - Scotsman




Advanced options | Search tips




Back to top | BBC News Home | BBC Homepage |


NEWS
RESULTS
THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT
PARTIES AND ISSUES
INTERACTIVE
OPINION POLLS
YOUR VIEWS
ARCHIVE