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Tuesday, 8 June, 1999, 09:11 GMT 10:11 UK
Opinion polls
European voting intention
There have been few polls asking voters specifically about how they will vote in the European elections. All are agreed, however, that the UK's turnout will be low - possibly falling below the 30% mark. As well as being embarrassing compared to the much higher figures recorded elsewhere in the EU, the low turnout could well have an impact on the result. A Mori poll published in The Times on 27 May, for example, gave a picture broadly in line with the Westminster figures - Labour 50%, Conservative 29%, Lib Dems 14%, SNP 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%. All other parties registered 1% or less. But of those who said they were certain to vote, the figures were Labour 45%, Tories 31%, Lib Dems 15%, SNP 4% and everyone else 1% or less. Not good news for Labour A Gallup poll in The Daily Telegraph on 4 June found similar encouragement for the Tories. Of those 'not certain' to vote, 24% said they would vote Conservative, but this figure rose to 28% among those who said they were 'certain' to cast their ballot. Labour saw a corresponding fall, from 52% to 41%. Labour's relatively low performance among committed voters was also shown in an ICM survey for The Guardian on 8 June. Those certain to vote broke down as: Labour 38%, Tories 31%, Lib Dems 14% and Others as 17%. This high Others total includes 4% each for the Greens and the UK Independence Party. This is short of what they need to win seats, but encouraging news nonetheless, particularly if it indicates a shift of momentum compared to earlier polls. Labour riding high overall These figures should be seen against the background of Westminster voting intention surveys which have been remarkably consistent for a long time - broadly indicating good news for the government and bad news for the opposition. In polls of Westminster voting intention published this year, Labour's suggested share of the vote has only once dropped below 50%, more usually hovering between 52-54%. The Conservatives, on the other hand, have not made it above 30% in 1999 with their usual rating around 27-28%, and the Liberal Democrats have polled around 13-15%. This makes good reading for Labour regarding the next general election as it represents an unprecedentedly high rating for a government at the likely mid-point of a parliament. Different elections, different choices It must not be forgotten, however, that these polls are for general UK voting intention - not specifically for the European Parliament. The elections for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly showed that voters can make markedly different choices for other governing bodies. Both the surveys and the actual results showed Labour doing much better at Westminster than elsewhere, and that could be repeated in the European elections. The projected share of the vote for the local elections gave a similar picture, with Labour on 37%, the Tories on 33% and the Lib Dems on 27%.
'Failures' of the polls There is also the fact that the opinion polls do not always pick up the public mood. Labour was generally over-rated in the Scottish campaign compared to its actual vote, and the situation in Wales was even more marked. A poll published the day before the election gave Labour 47% of the constituency vote and 38% for the additional members. On polling day, the party received 38% and 35% respectively and failed to win the overall majority which had been widely expected. One factor might have been the low turnouts in both Scotland (57%) and Wales (46%), with Labour voters perhaps staying home in greater numbers. As noted above, turnout in the European election is likely to be lower still and unlikely to challenge the UK high-water mark for such a vote of 37.8%. It should also be remembered that most opinion polls have a margin or error of +/- 3%.
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