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Tuesday, 10 October, 2000, 18:40 GMT 19:40 UK
Analysis: What now for the Balkans?
![]() Kostunica has popular support but can he bring change?
By South-east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos
Since the outbreak of fighting in the former Yugoslavia in 1991, senior Western officials have tended to avoid visiting Belgrade unless they have gone there to discuss peace plans or mediate between the warring sides. Over the years Slobodan Milosevic became increasingly identified as one of the root causes of conflict in the Balkans. Now that he has been replaced by Vojislav Kostunica there is a feeling that south-eastern Europe can look forward to a more stable future.
President Kostunica's first act in office was to lift the economic blockade on Montenegro which Mr Milosevic had imposed on Serbia's Yugoslav partner republic to punish it for pursuing its own economic policies. Region by region The new president's move is a step in the direction of bolstering stability within Yugoslavia and in the wider Balkans. This has also been reflected in Mr Kostunica's remarks in recent days in which he stressed that he wants Yugoslavia to be integrated with European institutions. As part of this process, it is expected that Yugoslavia will be invited to join the Stability Pact for south-eastern Europe which was established after the war in Kosovo to help rebuild the political and economic institutions of the region. Although there are some encouraging signs of a change in attitudes under the new leadership in Belgrade, there are some crucial disputed issues that will take much patient negotiation to resolve, or where far-reaching compromises will have to be made:
For his part, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic - whose governing coalition, and most Montenegrins, boycotted the elections - has said he does not recognise Mr Kostunica as president of Yugoslavia, but as leader of Serbia's democratic majority. Mr Kostunica may yet have to go along with Montenegro's proposal for a loosely-knit Yugoslav confederation which would formalise Montenegro's current unofficial status of semi-independence.
In fact, many Kosovars are apprehensive about Mr Kostunica. That is not so much because he is a nationalist. Rather it is because they had felt that their best chance for independence - generally opposed by the international community - would come as a result of a prolonged period of rule by Mr Milosevic who was not considered a negotiating partner by the United Nations. The de facto UN protectorate in Kosovo is now likely to remain in place - but with Serbia being given a say in how the province should be run. The continuing uncertainty over Kosovo's future will also have an impact on the ethnic Albanians' "Mother Country", Albania; but there is now an opportunity to normalise relations between Tirana and Belgrade.
However, there is also apprehension among Bosnian Muslims and Croats that with Mr Kostunica replacing the now discredited Mr Milosevic, there is an opportunity to revive plans to establish special relations between the Bosnian Serb Republic and Yugoslavia.
In general, relations are expected to improve - and that would be a huge bonus for many of the thousands of Serbian refugees from Croatia who are still stuck in Serbia and may now want to return to their homes.
The new regime in Belgrade holds out the hope of a more secure Balkans. That does not mean, though, that the Nato-led multinational peacekeepers are about to leave the region. On the contrary, they are expected to stay for several years, especially in Kosovo, because their presence will be much needed to keep tensions in check. Their strength (20,000 in Bosnia and more than 40,000 in Kosovo) may be gradually reduced. Until now Serbia has been a black hole in the newly-constructed and still somewhat shaky edifice of Balkan stability. Now there is a chance that Belgrade will contribute to regional co-operation instead of holding it back.
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