Milosevic allies resign

Kostunica has been consolidating his position

By South-east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

Vojislav Kostunica's victory in Yugoslavia's presidential contest marked a changing of the guard at the top of the hierarchy.

That victory, however, secured only after last Thursday's uprising in Belgrade, still left in place most layers of the Milosevic regime.

But on Monday, just three days after Slobodan Milosevic admitted defeat in the elections, two of his closest associates have resigned.

Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic and the Serbian Minister of the Interior Vlajko Stojiljkovic have stepped down after mounting pressure from political opponents.

The resignations were announced on the day Serbia's main political parties agreed to hold early elections in December.

New government

Stojiljkovic presided over the police force

Over the weekend Mr Kostunica was continuing to face a potentially difficult task in forming a new Yugoslav government that would reflect the opposition's success in the elections.

And more importantly, the institutions of Serbia - the presidency and government - looked set to remain in the hands of the pro-Milosevic establishment with no elections due for another year.

But the dramatic developments on Monday transformed the situation completely in Mr Kostunica's favour.

The resignation of Mr Bulatovic has removed Mr Milosevic's most loyal Montenegrin ally from the political scene.

His Socialist People's Party has a decisive say in the formation of a new government.

That's because it controls virtually all the seats allocated to Montenegro in the federal parliament as a result of the Montenegrin governing coalition's decision to boycott the federal elections.

Split party

Mr Bulatovic's party is badly split between people like him, now viewed as having been discredited by their close association with Mr Milosevic, and the more pragmatic elements, led by Predrag Bulatovic.

Thousands celebrated Kostunica's victory

The latter are probably prepared to give their backing to Mr Kostunica's coalition allies.

This should remove the obstacles from Mr Kostunica's path when he tries to appoint a government of experts.

Even more crucially for Mr Kostunica's success, the government of Serbia - which could have tried to obstruct his policies over the coming year - is now on the way out.

The minister in charge of the police, Vlajko Stojiljkovic, has already stepped down and elections for the Serbian parliament have now been fixed for December.

'House of cards'

On the basis of current trends, it can be assumed that the current governing coalition which brings together ex-president Milosevic's Socialists and his wife's neo-communist Yugoslav United Left will suffer a catastrophic defeat.

Milosevic: Administration collapsed

Meanwhile, the third coalition partner, the ultra-nationalist Radical Party, is likely to turn its back on its current allies.

If all goes according to expectations - and Mr Kostunica's alliance, the Democratic Opposition of Serbia, doesn't fall apart - it can be assumed that his supporters will be installed in government in Serbia before the end of the year.

This would ensure that the Milosevic regime's ability to fight back will be severely restricted.

It's an administration that has collapsed within days like a house of cards.

Once Mr Milosevic suffered the humiliating blow of a heavy defeat in the polls and then the security forces refused to use violence against the determined opposition lining up behind Mr Kostunica, it was clear that Mr Milosevic's days at the top were numbered.

In practice, those days turned out to be even shorter and fewer in number than expected.