Analysis: Milosevic plays for time

Election posters come down, but the contest is not over yet

By BBC south-east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

The announcement by Yugoslavia's Federal Electoral Commission that opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica failed to get an absolute majority in the presidential vote gives President Slobodan Milosevic time to plan his next move.

Under Yugoslavia's electoral law, a run-off is now required between Mr Kostunica, who according to the commission gained 48% of the vote, and the incumbent president, Slobodan Milosevic, who was 8% behind.

The opposition has said it will boycott a second round since they are convinced that their candidate, Vojislav Kostunica, is already the outright winner.

But the situation presents them with a dilemma. An opposition boycott could be precisely what Mr Milosevic is hoping for since it would deliver the presidency to him.

Plotting the next move: Mr Milosevic with wife Mira Markovic

The opposition's representatives on local electoral commissions, as well as an independent watchdog, the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy, have both reported that Mr Kostunica was the outright winner with about 55% of the votes.

But the Federal Electoral Commission, most of whose members have been appointed by President Milosevic's associates, says that Mr Kostunica missed winning an absolute majority by just under 2%.

Opposition party representatives on the commission have accused it of excluding Kostunica's supporters from meetings, and opposition leaders have demanded to see the voting records.

Time and options

Whatever happens next, the result is President Milosevic's most humiliating personal defeat of his career since he rose to the top 13 years ago.

But the delay in proceedings gives him time to consider a variety of options:

• He could intensify the campaign of intimidation against the opposition

• He could try to buy off some of the 18 parties which are at present united behind Mr Kostunica

• The authorities could challenge votes for the opposition on spurious or trivial grounds. This is a tactic used before, especially during 1996 when the opposition's victories in Serbia's municipal elections were annulled, only to be reinstated after three months of mass daily protests. Using this method could drag out the electoral verification process for months since the courts are dominated by the Milosevic administration

• If such tactics fail to provide the desired result, Mr Milosevic would in any case almost certainly not step down for the time being - on the grounds that his current term does not run out until next summer. This argument would be highly controversial - after all, it was his initiative to call the elections now

• If he were able to stay on for several months longer, he would have time to transfer his position and executive functions from the Yugoslav federal presidency back to his power base within the republic of Serbia itself. He could then deprive Mr Kostunica of all effective powers, leaving the Yugoslav federation an empty shell

• If the decision to hold a second round provokes unrest involving opposition supporters, he could deploy force, declare a state of emergency and call off the elections altogether

The use of force against the opposition would probably be the last resort. But Mr Milosevic has his entire future at stake.

As an indicted war crimes suspect, he could end up before the United Nations Tribunal in The Hague. So he might deploy the security forces in a robust way if public anger at his tactics boiled over into street protests.

The option of such a crackdown or state of emergency - with possible diversionary moves against pro-Western Montenegro - would however be a potentially risky undertaking.

As President Milosevic appears increasingly vulnerable, the loyalty of the police and the army can no longer be taken for granted.