Quiet quakes in German politics

By Tristana Moore
BBC News, Berlin

Since becoming foreign minister three years ago, Frank Walter Steinmeier has never courted headlines.

But the news that he will now be running for chancellor against Angela Merkel in next year's election has sent shock waves through the political class.

Mr Steinmeier earned himself the nickname The Grey Efficiency

Combined with the surprising resignation of Kurt Beck as chairman of the Social Democratic Party, it is clear that the SPD has undergone a radical shake-up.

Kurt Beck, who tried to steer the SPD to the left, was deeply unpopular and it was widely believed that Mr Beck would have led the SPD to electoral oblivion.

To add to the drama, Franz Muentefering, the SPD party stalwart who made a comeback last week after retiring from German politics last year, has now been named to replace Kurt Beck as the new SPD party leader.

Mr Steinmeier, 52, and Mr Muentefering, 68, have both identified themselves with the economic reforms of the former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, known as Agenda 2010.

Mr Steinmeier speaks a clear language and people understand him - he's a dangerous opponent Manfred Guellner Head of Forsa polling group

Recently, the SPD - which rules in a coalition with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - has been torn apart by internal bickering, with economic modernisers pitted against left-wingers.

"Kurt Beck's resignation as chairman of the SPD is a positive development as voters didn't trust him," Manfred Guellner, head of the Forsa polling group, told the BBC.

"Chancellor Merkel is extremely popular, but so is Frank Walter Steinmeier. Mr Steinmeier speaks a clear language and people understand him - he's a dangerous opponent," said Mr Guellner.

Mr Steinmeier was Gerhard Schroeder's chief of staff before becoming Germany's top diplomat.

A lawyer by training, Mr Steinmeier is regarded as an effective troubleshooter and he is one of Germany's most popular politicians.

The son of a carpenter and a factory worker, Mr Steinmeier was born in the German town of Detmold in 1956.

Winning ticket?

He began his career as a legal researcher at Giessen University before entering politics in the state of Lower Saxony.

Both men are linked to the same set of economic reforms

During his time as Schroeder's chief of staff, Mr Steinmeier earned the nickname The Grey Efficiency, thanks to his reputation for quiet caution.

However, although Mr Steinmeier is popular, he faces an uphill battle in the run-up to next year's federal election.

Mr Steinmeier has never held elected office and he has a weak party base. But, despite that, he is in fighting mood.

"We've had a difficult day and we've seen some dramatic times," Mr Steinmeier told a news conference in Berlin on Monday.

"I'm running for chancellor, not just to take part in the election, but to win," he added.

According to a new Infratest Dimap poll, the SPD is still lagging behind the CDU.

The poll puts the CDU on 36%, while support for the Social Democrats has plummeted to 26%.

Many traditional SPD voters have defected to the Left Party, which is made up of disillusioned social democrats and former East German communists.

Recent polls suggest support for the Left Party has climbed to 15%.

According to many commentators, Mr Steinmeier represents the SPD's best chance of closing the big poll lead enjoyed by the Christian Democrats.

"Mr Steinmeier will rule out forming a coalition with the Left Party at a federal level," said Manfred Guellner, the director of the Forsa Institute.

"That's important as the majority of SPD voters don't want a coalition with the Left Party, because of the party's communist background," he said.

Franz Muentefering, a former vice-chancellor who backs the economic reforms of Gerhard Schroeder, is seen as a unifying figure within the SPD, capable of appealing to traditional SPD voters.

With Mr Muentefering on Mr Steinmeier's side, SPD party grandees are hoping that they will be a winning ticket.

Peter Struck, the leader of the SPD's parliamentary group, said the shake-up was a "great opportunity for a new beginning".

"Now we need to make a new start, and put an end to the battles on the party's wings," Mr Struck said.

For the CDU, the shake-up of the Social Democrat leadership apparently also came as a surprise, but conservative politicians were quick to criticise the SPD for indulging in "navel-gazing".

Balancing act

The timing of the SPD shake-up is potentially explosive. Just 12 months before polling day, there are fears that the ruling coalition of Social Democrats and conservative Christian Democrats could be heading for a period of deadlock.

Has the countdown to the election already begun?

"Frank-Walter Steinmeier will improve the SPD's chances in the next election," said Professor Juergen Falter, from the University of Mainz, in an interview with the BBC.

"Mr Steinmeier is a good diplomat and a great administrator, and in terms of popularity, he's on a par with Angela Merkel. But the whole business of governing will now become more difficult.

"Merkel and Steinmeier will have to fight each other in public, but they'll have to work together in the cabinet and it's a tricky balancing act," said Mr Falter.

In a sign of things to come, Chancellor Merkel used pretty blunt language when she congratulated Mr Steinmeier on his nomination as the SPD's candidate for chancellor.

Angela Merkel said the circumstances of Kurt Beck's departure were "beneath the dignity" of a large German party and showed how divided the SPD had become.

But Chancellor Merkel insisted that she would continue to work well with Mr Steinmeier in the "grand coalition" and she said that she "was looking forward to an exciting campaign next year".

But maybe the campaign for the 2009 election has already started.