Berlusconi: Italy's 'comeback kid'?

By Christian Fraser
BBC News, Rome

Mr Berlusconi is the leading candidate, according to Italian polls

Italians are bracing for fresh elections in April - less than two years after they elected the last parliament.

The country is set to go to the polls with the same system of proportional representation that was widely blamed for the fragmentation of Italian politics.

The Speaker of the Senate, Franco Marini, has tried to find support among all the parties for an interim government, with a mandate to reform the electoral laws.

But in the end he failed to convince the centre-right parties that reform should come first. There are currently 39 parties in parliament.

Where are the young politicians, the Barack Obamas, the David Camerons of Italian politics? There are precious few

The collapse of Romano Prodi's centre-left government opened the door, once again, to the irrepressible Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister and billionaire businessman who controls three of Italy's commercial television channels.

His current lead in the polls ranges from 10 to 16 points.

Centre-left split

The centre-left, reeling from their collapse in the Senate vote of confidence last month, now have an enormous challenge ahead.

Mr Veltroni would have liked more time to prepare for the polls

Walter Veltroni, the 52-year-old mayor of Rome, is widely expected to replace Mr Prodi as the centre-left's candidate for prime minister, but he has indicated he would have liked more time to prepare his new Democratic Party for the elections.

He had supported President Giorgio Napolitano's efforts to reform the electoral laws.

Mr Veltroni has said he wants his party to run alone, without the support of the other parties in the centre-left coalition.

If he does that, some analysts predict he will win a greater share of the vote - but running alone would almost certainly ensure victory for the opposition.

If Mr Berlusconi wins - as the polls suggest he will - it will be his third term as prime minister.

From 2001-2006 he led the longest-serving government since World War II. It is the only post-war government to have seen out a full five-year term.

But he was criticised over that period for his handling of the economy. There was a marked downturn in economic growth, with increasing unemployment and rising debt.

Many have said it was a wasted opportunity, with his government failing to live up to many of its promises.

'Comeback kid'

Mr Berlusconi's lead in the polls is not necessarily a matter of personal popularity. Italy is frustrated with the instability and chaos brought about by the centre-left.

Mr Prodi struggled to reconcile differences in his coalition

Even though Mr Prodi's government presided over a period of economic stability, a fall in unemployment, and started paying off public debt, it is the perception that counts.

Mr Prodi spent most of his time reconciling differences between the nine parties of his coalition, rather than selling the achievements of his government.

Mr Berlusconi has been labelled by some papers as the "comeback kid". Perhaps, but many Italians express dismay that the same faces keep reappearing.

Where are the young politicians, the Barack Obamas, the David Camerons of Italian politics?

There are precious few. And that is because under the system as it stands, each party puts forward its own list of candidates chosen by the party leaders. In Italy voters have little choice over individual candidates.

Mr Berlusconi would be 76 at the end of another five years in office. His cosmetic surgery (hair implants and a face-lift) give him a much younger complexion, but there have been scares over his health. He had minor heart surgery in 2006 after fainting on stage.

Court battles

On top of that, he has been tried 11 times for corruption - and some of these trials are still running. The allegations mostly relate to his business activities before he entered politics, when he made his fortune in property and television.

He is still on trial in Milan on a charge that he paid his former British lawyer David Mills, the estranged husband of the British Olympics Minister Tessa Jowell, $600,000 (£300,000) to lie for him in a previous court case.

Mr Berlusconi denies all the charges and has accused the judges of conducting a politically-motivated witch-hunt.

To reassure some of the wavering voters, Mr Berlusconi has put a very British stamp on his comeback campaign, promising to govern for three years if elected, before handing control to a unnamed successor.

He has modelled this approach on former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Supporters within his Forza Italia party say Mr Berlusconi still has plenty to offer. Certainly his election manifesto will prove attractive to some voters.

He says he has a plan for the first 100 days in government and is promising to cut taxes, including tax on property.

By contrast, Mr Prodi's coalition cracked down on tax evasion in Italy and pushed up the high rate of tax for top earners. Never a vote winner.