Moscow Diary: A Putin puppet?

With less than a month to go before Russia's presidential election, the BBC's James Rodgers wonders whether the country will change much under Vladimir Putin's successor. His diary is published fortnightly.

A WHALE IN THE THAMES

I'm talking about the sort of thing that makes even the most cynical, bored, grumpy journalist sit up and take notice. You, know, real news - like when the whale swam up the Thames a couple of years ago.

How might a Medvedev presidency work with Putin as prime minister?

That's the kind of dramatic development it would take to stop Dmitry Medvedev becoming Russia's next president.

With less than four weeks to go until voting day, there's absolutely no prospect of any such thing coming to pass.

There are plenty of elections where you can be pretty certain who's going to win. There aren't many, especially in democracies, where so little is left to chance.

So the question in this election is not who's going to win, but how they will use their victory.

All eyes are on how much power and influence Vladimir Putin will retain. He, of course, is expected to become prime minister. No one is really sure how that's going to work. The prime minister has always served at the pleasure of the president in post-Soviet Russia. Having such a popular and high-profile premier will be something truly new.

How will Medvedev's Russia be different from Putin's?

We need to adjust our foreign policy goals to guarantee stable investment Alexei Kudrin, finance minister

Last Wednesday, there were two news items which might have contained clues.

Two top officials publicly questioned the effectiveness of Russia's recent foreign policy. The finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, and the state electricity boss, Anatoly Chubais, were speaking at an investment forum.

"Our dependency on global economic ties, on our exports, is felt so strongly, that in the nearest future we need to adjust our foreign policy goals to guarantee stable investment," Mr Kudrin told his audience.

"We really have to think about how much our foreign policy costs our economy," said Mr Chubais. Specifically, he referred to the recent closure of the British Council offices in St Petersburg.

Putin told the FSB to be extra-vigilant ahead of the polls

Of course, for the time being, the money is simply rolling in. Mr Kudrin and Mr Chubais just seemed to feel there could be even more of it if things were a bit different: in other words, if Russia weren't seen by some as simply throwing its weight around.

The timing of their remarks suggests they feel there may be the chance for change under the new administration. Not so fast... On the same day, Mr Putin spoke to "an enlarged session of the Federal Security Service (FSB) praesidium" - a meeting of the top bosses of the secret police.

For anyone worried that Russia might be about to go easy on her enemies, here was plenty of comfort. "Traditionally, a major focus of the FSB's activities has been to curb the activities of foreign intelligence," Mr Putin told his audience.

"We need to increase efforts to ensure quick access to information about attempts to interfere in our internal affairs. This is particularly important before the elections for the president of the Russian Federation. Our country is a sovereign state and we will not allow the election campaign to be manipulated by outsiders," he warned.

A MONSTER IN THE MOSKVA?

There's little chance this election campaign can be manipulated by anyone. It would take an event of the news value almost of the Loch Ness monster surfacing in the River Moskva right below the Kremlin walls to change that.

For a Westerner arriving for the first time in this country, the experience can broadly be divided into two categories.

Initial encounters with officials, or hotel staff, can seem bewilderingly blunt and unfriendly. But any move away from the public arena - particularly an invitation to someone's home - will often reveal a warmth and hospitality many, many other countries would struggle to match.

The point is that first impressions here are often misleading. While it may look as if nothing is going to change under a new president, that may not be the way it turns out.

GUESTS OF THE TRAFFIC POLICE

There is one form of hospitality which everyone is keen to avoid. Any Russian motorist, or foreigner who has lived here, has a car boot-full of traffic tales.

Anecdotes apart, road safety is a very serious issue in this country. The death rate is about three times what it is in some Western countries - 35,000 people are killed every year.

The authorities are determined to do something. Since 1 January, some offences - like drink-driving, or leaving the scene of an accident - have been punishable by an immediate 15 days in jail.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the traffic police - known by their tongue-twisting Russian initials GIBDD - are enjoying their new power, and using it.

It will be interesting to see if it actually makes the roads safer.

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Your comments:

It seems that the new road laws may help to improve the situation on the roads. Many drivers neglect road laws, especially, fastening the belts. But when I took a taxi a week ago the first thing I was told by the driver was to fasten my belt. He said 'Do you know you have to pay for it now?' Penalties for this violation were quintupled from $4 to $20 in US dollars equivalent. I hope it will help to improve safety on the roads.
Oleg, Moscow, Russia

It would be nice of the Russians if they could stop interfering and messing up their neighbours' affairs, instead of blaming them. And, no amount of sweet-talking from Mr Chubais, or anyone else will convince us in the EU that the Russians have stopped behaving like bullies, which they have been for centuries. Deeds speak louder than words.
Incredulous, Finland

The hoteliers haven't yet learnt from the West how to run things, but, as Mr Rodgers says, the people are wonderfully warm and friendly. I don't think there will be any change. Fortunately, Mr Vladimir Putin will continue to be the power behind the throne, and hopefully the prosperity Russia has enjoyed for some years will continue. While the USA is sinking, Russia and China are rising.
Peter Kirsch, Cape Town, South Africa

Putin's popularity is due to rising oil prices. In the coming decade, the world will divide into a pro-Western bloc (US, UK, Europe, Canada, Mexico, parts of South America, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Oz, NZ and India) and an anti-Western bloc (Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Sudan, a few others). Instead of ideology, the competition will be over energy. Putin sees this clearly and is positioning Russia. To do this he needs an authoritarian regime. Welcome to the return of the Cold War.
Yank in Slough, Slough, UK

People in Russia are brainwashed now as in the deepest Soviet times. You don't ask a Russian what he thinks - as in North Korea - Russians think what they are told to think. They don't know what they are thinking themselves. With some exceptions. And democracy, human rights, power of law, free market - these are not only some crazy "western values". These are general human values - Russia deserves as much respect as it respects those values. And in my opinion the Russia of the nineties deserves much more respect from the free democratic world, than the current one. Democracy is what people in Russia really need. Sooner or later they will realise if you lose your freedom you lose everything. We in the Baltics have learned it very painfully from our recent history.
Janis, Riga, Latvia