Shevardnadze faces massive task

Rob Parsons in Shatili, north-east of the capital Tbilisi

By Moscow correspondent Rob Parsons

The people of Georgia did something inexplicable on Sunday. They voted Eduard Shevardnadze back into office by a margin even more monstrous than in 1995.

He won some 80% of the vote - not far off the sort of figure he used to command when he was leader of the Soviet Georgian Communist Party.

It is inexplicable because all the pre-election surveys showed that Georgians were thoroughly, gut-wrenchingly fed up with Mr Shevardnadze's government.

Eduard Shevardnadze won some 80% of the vote

And with good reason - 70% of the people in this once relatively prosperous country live below the official poverty line, the electricity supply is intermittent at best, life in some mountain villages is almost medieval and corruption is gnawing like a cancer at the heart and soul of the country.

Georgians are more than disenchanted - they are disgusted. And yet, the Central Electoral Commission would have them believe that four fifths of those who voted did so for Mr Shevardnadze.

The cynicism of the count takes the breath away. Georgia's first steps in democracy were encouraging. In 1995 parliamentary and presidential elections were widely accepted as mostly fair.

Last November's parliamentary ballot was a step back. This humiliates the Georgian people.

Vote-rigging

Off the record, international observers are talking of widespread irregularities. Mr Shevardnadze's main opponent, Jumber Patiashvili, says he has evidence of massive falsification.

Mr Patiashvili failed to exploit popular dissatisfaction

Yet the extraordinary thing is none of it was necessary. Georgians may be fed up with the 72-year-old white fox but they would have voted for him anyway. The pitiful campaigns of his challengers had handed him the election on a plate.

It is unlikely Mr Shevardnadze himself sanctioned the vote-rigging. But what seems to have happened could in the long run be still more damaging.

A post-Soviet political culture is taking shape that has nothing to do with democracy. The powerful regional governors - all of whom are appointed by Mr Shevardnadze - appear to have sought to anticipate his wishes. Like fawning Ottoman officials, they have tried to please the boss by fixing the vote.

Cut off

When Georgia joined the Council of Europe, Mr Shevardnadze said that for centuries his country had felt artifically cut off from its European home - by the Persians, the Turks and, latterly, by the Russians. But by this vote, Georgia has showed how far removed it is from real integration with Europe.

Babu, or grandad, as Mr Shevardnadze is universally known in his homeland, has a massive task on his hands.

The former Soviet foreign minister, who joined Mikhail Gorbachev in putting an end to the Cold War, must now confront something far more mundane but no less intractable: the deep-seated corruption that has brought Georgia to its knees.

Tax-collection is a pitiful 9% of GDP, one of the lowest rates in the world. The president's family and its cronies dominate the economy.

Western aid vanishes without trace, and foreign investors complain of a culture of bribery and intimidation.

Mr Shevardnadze after his escape from a car bomb in 1995

Mr Shevardnadze acknowledges the extent of the problem. In his pre-election campaign, he said that if re-elected, he would declare war on poverty and corruption. It's what the country needs, but if he is true to his word, the country can expect a rough ride.

The Georgian leader has already survived two attempts on his life. Groups with vested interests to defend - even within his own family - will fight back tooth and nail.

But if he really takes them on, he will earn the lasting respect of his people.

How he deals with the media - still relatively free in Georgia - could give an early indication of how he intends to proceed.

The hard-hitting current affairs programme Six Minutes, which specialises in exposes of high-level corruption, is watching with interest. In the run-up to the election, its journalists were threatened with violence, even murder, but sources close to Mr Shevardnadze indicated the programme would be given a free rein once the election was over.

Foreign issues

Mr Shevardnadze's problems will not stop there. He devoted his first presidency, with some success, to foreign policy and the geopolitics of the Transcaucasus.

Russia, the war in Chechnya on its northern border, separatism at home, oil and gas pipelines - the issues will be the same. Georgia wants to be part of Europe, but it needs a good relationship with Russia.

Chechen refugees in Duisi, Georgia

It fears Moscow will use the war in Chechnya to undermine its sovereignty. Russia accuses the Georgians of allowing Chechen fighters to take shelter on Georgian soil and use Georgia as a conduit for arms supplies.

The Georgians say the Russians are lying, and have invited the OSCE to monitor the border for themselves.

I joined an OSCE observation unit in the high mountains that divide the two countries. The Georgian border guards appear to be doing their job. There is no evidence of significant incursions. But the tensions remain.

Mr Shevardnadze had a difficult relationship with Boris Yeltsin, but is apparently encouraged by his successor, Vladimir Putin. The new Russian leader is tough, but he is a pragmatist who may recognise that by alienating Georgia, Russia will push its little southern neighbour into looking for friends elsewhere.

By the time he retires, the Georgian leader will be 77 and have ruled his country on and off for the best part of 30 years. But it is what he does with the next five that will determine how he is remembered by his people.