Countdown begins for Kosovo

By Tim Judah
Balkans analyst

A delegation of Kosovo Albanians is to meet a delegation of Serbian leaders on the margins of the UN General Assembly to discuss the future of Kosovo.

Kosovo has been in a UN-administered limbo since the war

In theory, it could be an important moment - the first face-to-face talks for many months - but expectations are low.

With entrenched positions on either side nobody believes that progress is about to be made.

And yet, a countdown has begun.

The current negotiation process is being overseen by three diplomats, one each from the EU, the US and Russia.

On 10 December they must report back to the UN on what progress, if any, they have made.

Barring an unforeseen breakthrough, what happens next is crucial.

Serbia's leaders, championed by Russia, say the talks should continue, but Kosovo Albanians have said they will declare the territory independent and US diplomats have said they would like to recognise it.

Technically, Kosovo is part of Serbia. In fact it has been under the jurisdiction of the UN ever since the end of the war there in 1999.

Kosovo is home to some 2m people of whom about 90% are ethnic Albanians who have long demanded independence.

'Supervised independence'

If Kosovo does become a new state it will be the seventh to have emerged from the wreckage of the country once known as Yugoslavia.

Belgrade says it cannot accept independence for Kosovo

The problem is that, unlike Croatia or Montenegro or the other republics of the former Yugoslavia, Kosovo's status in the old country was different.

It was a province of Serbia and hence, technically, it did not have the right to self-determination.

Serbia is offering Kosovo a highly autonomous status within its own borders, a proposal rejected out of hand by the Kosovo Albanians.

In March, a plan for "supervised independence" for the province drawn up by Martti Ahtisaari, the former Finnish president, was presented to the UN.

It failed to win endorsement from the Security Council because Russia threatened to use its veto if a resolution on the issue was tabled.

Russian warning

Russian leaders argue that Kosovo's future can only be resolved by an agreement between Kosovo Albanians and Serbia.

Many ethnic Albanians are impatient with negotiations

They say that any other way of dealing with the question would not only be illegal but would set a precedent for numerous so-called "frozen conflicts" around the former Soviet Union.

But Western diplomats who deal with the issue see other factors at work here.

They point out that Kosovo lies in what is now an enclave at the heart of the EU and this whole region has been given a promise of eventual membership.

They believe that for Russian diplomats Kosovo is a useful tool, among others, for sowing discord amongst EU states and keeping the 27-member body weak.

So what the EU decides to do about Kosovo is now the question.

In the last few days Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, has reiterated that the US wants to recognise Kosovo's independence.

This has been forcefully rebutted by the Russians.

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said in New York this week that any attempt to bypass the Security Council would "represent a violation of international law".

Uncertain limbo

All eyes are on the EU then. According to diplomatic sources, Britain and France would like to recognise Kosovo if it declares independence.

Kosovo's new generation does not know what government it will have

But they want a lot of other EU countries to follow them. If Germany does, then most others probably will too.

But it may not, in which case the US may well wait too and more delays can be expected in resolving the issue.

Ever since an outburst of violence in 2004, Kosovo has been quiet.

However there are no guarantees that this will remain the case if its status continues to remain in limbo, or indeed if it declares independence in December.

Tens of thousands of Serbs living in enclaves throughout Kosovo remain fearful for their future.

But Serbs who live in the north, which is bordered by Serbia proper, say that if independence comes, they will simply ignore it and continue to run the area, as they do now, as part of Serbia.

Tim Judah is the author of Kosovo: War and Revenge and The Serbs: History, Myth and the Destruction of Yugoslavia.