Q&A: Dutch referendum

The Dutch government has decided not to hold a referendum on the treaty drafted to replace the ill-fated European constitution.

But it is still possible that the parliament will decide to organise a referendum, as it did in 2005, when the Dutch voted No to the European constitution.

If a referendum is held in the Netherlands, the chances of the treaty ever coming into force would be dramatically diminished.

If there was a referendum, would the Dutch vote No again?

It's a definite possibility. Polls conducted by the government are reported to show a narrow majority against the treaty.

Reform Treaty in detail

But even if the Dutch voted in favour of the treaty, there is a possibility that their decision to hold a referendum would force the hand of other countries whose governments are hoping to avoid a referendum. For example, the UK.

Will the parliament push for a referendum?

A group of smaller parties in the parliament are already pushing for a referendum.

The largest of these is the Socialist Party, with 25 seats out of the total of 150. If they are joined by Labour Party, analysts say, there could be a majority in the lower house in favour of a popular vote.

However, at this stage it looks as though the upper house would reject the idea.

What is the Labour Party's position on the treaty?

The party backs the treaty, but is split over whether there should be a referendum.

VIEW DRAFT TREATY DOCUMENTS Draft treaty [1.5MB] Protocols [572KB] Declarations [641KB] Most computers will open this document automatically, but you may need Adobe Reader Download the reader here

Members who want a referendum believe they can win it this time. Their opponents say the Reform Treaty is not a constitution, so there is no need for a referendum.

The party leader, Wouter Bos, the country's finance minister, is against a referendum.

The leader of its parliamentary group, Jacques Tichelaar, is campaigning in favour of a referendum. That is how bad the split is.

What about the other main parties?

Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's Christian Democrats are in favour of the treaty, and against a referendum.

The liberal VVD party - the fourth largest party in the lower house of parliament after the Christian Democrats, Labour and the Socialists - takes the same view, in theory.

However, Frits Bolkestein, a former European commissioner and an influential VVD Party member, has come out in favour of a referendum.

Could the treaty question split the government?

Analysts have already been looking for signs that the six-month-old coalition could crumble.

Apart from the question of the treaty referendum, there are big divisions on plans to make it easier for bosses to hire and fire workers, and on the terms for extending the Dutch military presence in Afghanistan.

Correspondents say Labour ministers may have won concessions on policies their party doesn't like in return for agreeing to a government decision against holding a referendum.

Why did the government take its decision now?

Last week a body of lawyers advising the government, the State Council, produced a confidential report, which said the government is under no legal obligation to hold a referendum.

The report is said to conclude that the treaty does not have the characteristics of a constitution.

Has the text of the treaty been agreed?

Most of it has. Officials from the 27 member states have been discussing a rough draft produced over the summer.

Some problems remain to be ironed out, but the plan is to get political agreement on a final text at a summit in Portugal next month.

If the Netherlands holds a referendum, would this influence other countries?

It could. Ireland is planning to have a referendum anyway.

The UK is not, but Prime Minister Gordon Brown is under a lot of pressure to agree to one, and that pressure would undoubtedly increase if the Netherlands opted for a popular vote.

Denmark is another country where such a step is possible, and there are a few other countries, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, that have not taken a final decision.