By the BBC's south-east Europe analyst Gabriel Partos

The front-runner in Croatia's presidential election was barely considered just three weeks ago, but now has a good chance of clinching the vote.

At the age of 65, Stipe Mesic has the unusual record of being both the last president of the former Yugoslavia and the first prime minister of Croatia, following the collapse of communist rule 10 years ago.

Afterwards, he was out of mainstream politics for six years, but gained 41% of the vote in the first round of the presidential vote on 24 January.

With the second round ballot taking place on 7 February, Mr Mesic could be back in power - a prospect he attributes to both policy and presentation.

"I am for a European option, the option which will help Croatia achieve its strategic goals - that is the EU and Nato," he said. "Our citizens now realise why I left the world of official politics and my splendid team knew how to transform my message into words and pictures and, as you can see, people are not easily deceived.

"They reacted in the only way possible."

Rise and fall

A lawyer by profession, Mr Mesic was jailed for two years for Croatian nationalism during the Tito era in the early 1970s. As multi-party politics returned to Croatia and the late Franjo Tudjman's nationalist Croatian Democratic Union, the HDZ, gained power in April 1990, Mr Mesic - already a prominent party member - was appointed prime minister.

But within three months, Mr Mesic was shifted to another key post - as Croatia's representative on Yugoslavia's collective presidency. The following year it was his turn to take over the annually-rotating post of president, but the move was blocked by the Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic.

Ironically, it was not until after Croatia proclaimed its independence in June 1991 that, as part of a compromise deal brokered by Western diplomats, Mr Mesic was allowed to take up his post. By then Croatia was at war with the Serb-dominated Yugoslav army and the Yugoslavia federation was in the process of disintegration.

Afterwards, Mr Mesic became speaker of the Croatian parliament, the Sabor. But he became increasingly disenchanted with President Tudjman's authoritarian style and his interventionist policy in Bosnia-Hercegovina. Along with several other senior figures, in 1994 Mr Mesic resigned from the HDZ to form a new political movement.

But the timing was wrong. President Tudjman was still enjoying widespread popularity as the founding father of Croatian independence, and after 1995 the HDZ was also benefiting from Croatia's success in recapturing areas of the country previously controlled by Serb forces.

Mr Mesic spent several years in the political wilderness but he was never out of the limelight. Though until recently his political influence remained minimal, thanks to his skills as an outstanding communicator he is a popular media personality.

Mr Mesic's success has been due to a great extent to his personality and style - accessible, witty, blunt. It is the exact opposite of President Tudjman's pomposity and regal manner which many Croats have come to resent.

One of his election posters invited Croats to have coffee with their would-be president and Mr Mesic has been doing his best to put this invitation into practice by meeting ordinary people as often as possible.

Of course, it is not only the style, but also the policies that would change under Mr Mesic. He has promised to break with the Tudjman era's intense nationalism by opening Croatia up to Europe, stopping interference in Bosnia's affairs and co-operating more closely with the War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague.

But the new policies have also been espoused by the other front-runners in the presidential race. So if Mr Mesic wins, it is likely to be that Croats simply regard him as more likeable than his rivals.