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Thursday, 9 December, 1999, 22:30 GMT
Analysis: EU searches for action plan

Chechen refugees comfort each other after fleeing their homes The suffering of civilians may come to a climax soon


By diplomatic correspondent Barnaby Mason

The intensifying Russian offensive in Chechnya has forced its way to the top of the agenda of the European Union summit being held in Helsinki.

Battle for the Caucasus
Over the past few days, the rhetoric of condemnation has been building up, with European governments beginning to hint at the possible use of economic measures against Moscow.

The Russian ultimatum to Chechen civilians to evacuate the capital, Grozny, by Saturday has provoked a torrent of criticism in western Europe.

Vague language


A Russian soldier plays a piano in a school they are helping to rebuild Russia's military campaign strikes a discordant note with the EU
Even after the ultimatum was qualified, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer called it barbaric and demanded that the EU should - as he put it - impose all its possibilities on Russia to get it withdrawn.

The vague language used by Mr Fischer when it comes to action is typical of what is being said by other countries.

A senior French official said she could not rule out the possibility of EU leaders agreeing to take some measures against Russia.

The Italian government referred to the suspension of aid as a way of exerting pressure, but added that it was not in the minds of the leaders yet.

Growing pressure


A Russian soldier looks out of a helicopter window Federal troops set their sights on the Chechen capital
And the Finnish government, which is chairing the summit, said enigmatically that there were different levels of action in political and economic relations with Russia - adding that therefore, the EU's line might be stiffened in ways that were not just political.

The pressure is growing, as on previous occasions, for something to be done.

Both the British and French foreign ministers indicated that co-operation and aid programmes could not continue indefinitely in present circumstances.

The Russian military offensive and the suffering of the Chechen people may, of course, come to a climax during the Helsinki summit. This will mean that some plan of action, if not action itself, will have to be produced.

IMF lever

One option would be to suspend the EU's programme of aid designed to promote economic reform in Russia.

But the problem here is that such aid is in theory in the interest of the West as well as Russia.

The same applies to aid given to enable Russia to destroy nuclear weapons, as the Clinton administration often emphasises.

The most effective economic lever is the credits made available by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

However, the next tranche of a big loan to Russia has already been delayed.

The IMF says it is waiting for Moscow to implement structural reforms; the Russians complain the delay is for political reasons.

European dilemma

The Helsinki summit will undoubtedly review a wide range of options in considering what it might do to make Russia reconsider its offensive in Chechnya.

But the EU does have a real dilemma: military action is ruled out by everyone, and western governments do not want to abandon their policy of engagement with Russia or risk reinforcing nationalist sentiment there.

As one official put it: "There is only a limited amount we can do."

On the political front, British officials have suggested that the summit will discuss recalling ambassadors from Moscow for consultations.

But even on this point, officials doubt that Britain's EU partners would agree.

The Council of Europe - not an EU body - is believed to be discussing the possible expulsion of Russia.

But in Helsinki, the only certainty is that the EU will issue a strongly-worded statement.

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See also:
08 Dec 99 |  Europe
Analysis: Besieged in a doomed city
09 Dec 99 |  Europe
Clinton dismisses nuclear outburst
08 Dec 99 |  Business
IMF delay angers Russia
07 Dec 99 |  Europe
Grozny: A city in terror
08 Dec 99 |  Europe
Russia defiant over Chechnya
09 Dec 99 |  Europe
Yeltsin and Clinton spar over Chechnya

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