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Thursday, 9 December, 1999, 22:30 GMT
Analysis: EU searches for action plan
By diplomatic correspondent Barnaby Mason The intensifying Russian offensive in Chechnya has forced its way to the top of the agenda of the European Union summit being held in Helsinki.
The Russian ultimatum to Chechen civilians to evacuate the capital, Grozny, by Saturday has provoked a torrent of criticism in western Europe. Vague language
Even after the ultimatum was qualified, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer called it barbaric and demanded that the EU should - as he put it - impose all its possibilities on Russia to get it withdrawn.
The vague language used by Mr Fischer when it comes to action is typical of what is being said by other countries. A senior French official said she could not rule out the possibility of EU leaders agreeing to take some measures against Russia. The Italian government referred to the suspension of aid as a way of exerting pressure, but added that it was not in the minds of the leaders yet. Growing pressure
And the Finnish government, which is chairing the summit, said enigmatically that there were different levels of action in political and economic relations with Russia - adding that therefore, the EU's line might be stiffened in ways that were not just political.
The pressure is growing, as on previous occasions, for something to be done. Both the British and French foreign ministers indicated that co-operation and aid programmes could not continue indefinitely in present circumstances. The Russian military offensive and the suffering of the Chechen people may, of course, come to a climax during the Helsinki summit. This will mean that some plan of action, if not action itself, will have to be produced. IMF lever One option would be to suspend the EU's programme of aid designed to promote economic reform in Russia. But the problem here is that such aid is in theory in the interest of the West as well as Russia. The same applies to aid given to enable Russia to destroy nuclear weapons, as the Clinton administration often emphasises. The most effective economic lever is the credits made available by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the next tranche of a big loan to Russia has already been delayed. The IMF says it is waiting for Moscow to implement structural reforms; the Russians complain the delay is for political reasons. European dilemma The Helsinki summit will undoubtedly review a wide range of options in considering what it might do to make Russia reconsider its offensive in Chechnya. But the EU does have a real dilemma: military action is ruled out by everyone, and western governments do not want to abandon their policy of engagement with Russia or risk reinforcing nationalist sentiment there. As one official put it: "There is only a limited amount we can do." On the political front, British officials have suggested that the summit will discuss recalling ambassadors from Moscow for consultations. But even on this point, officials doubt that Britain's EU partners would agree. The Council of Europe - not an EU body - is believed to be discussing the possible expulsion of Russia. But in Helsinki, the only certainty is that the EU will issue a strongly-worded statement.
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