Glimmer of light on Cyprus?

By Kirsty Hughes
Writer on European affairs

It is early August and temperatures are rising above 40 degrees, but few politicians appear to be on holiday on either side of the green line in divided Cyprus.

Behind a media blackout, Greek and Turkish Cypriot negotiators are meeting under UN auspices to thrash out a basis for new talks.

George Lillikas campaigned against the UN Annan plan for Cyprus

On 31 July the two sides exchanged lists of issues they wanted to discuss.

These points were agreed by the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities, Tassos Papadopoulos and Mehmet Ali Talat, when they met in early July, under pressure from UN Deputy Secretary-General Ibrahim Gambari.

Hopes are rising of a deal this week, involving twin-track talks: on improving co-operation on "daily life" issues such as health or crime, and on substantive issues relating to any future comprehensive settlement.

This would be the first breakthrough since April 2004, when the Greek Cypriots voted "No" and Turkish Cypriots "Yes" in a referendum on a plan drawn up by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to reunite the island.

After Annan

Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister George Lillikas - being groomed, some say, as a possible successor to Mr Papadopoulos - is upbeat in his Nicosia office, colourful paintings on the walls.

"We insist on a federal bizonal, bicommunal solution," he says.

Mehmet Ali Talat says the Annan plan is the best basis for talks

This surprises some, since it was the foundation of the Annan plan, which Mr Lillikas campaigned against and rejects as the basis for any future talks.

"Anyone [who talks about the Annan plan] is supporting the division of the island," he says.

Across the green line, the elected leader of northern Cyprus, Mehmet Ali Talat, sits in almost cloistered isolation amidst the old low arches of the presidential palace in Nicosia.

He is clearly frustrated and disappointed - having been elected on a pro-EU, pro-settlement basis - that north Cyprus remains isolated two years after the Yes vote on the UN plan, and despite EU promises in April 2004 to end its isolation.

For him, the Annan plan remains key: "There is no other basis for a solution, so we put the things we want to change or keep as they are." On a possible new UN process, he says he is "neither optimistic or pessimistic".

Asked why the two leaders only met for the first time in two years this July, Mr Talat says: "Papadopoulos was refusing to meet me."

"There is now some pressure on the Greek Cypriots, so Papadopoulos agreed to come together after a long period of a rejectionist stance."

EU promises

EU politicians are following these talks closely, as the Cyprus problem threatens to derail Turkey's EU membership talks this autumn.

Turkey is currently refusing to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic - a legal obligation under its EU customs union - unless the EU opens northern Cyprus's ports, ending its economic isolation.

Q&A: Cyprus peace process

Mr Lillikas, like other EU politicians, refuses to accept any linkage.

"Turkey is trying to have something in return for fulfilling its obligations - it is not happening and we won't allow it to happen," he says. "Turkey should forget about the Anatolian bazaar."

But Mr Talat insists the EU should anyway keep its promises.

"After the referendum, the EU promised many things - to lift isolation, to let Turkish Cypriots export goods from Famagusta port, to let Turkish Cypriots get funds directly from the EU without involvement of the Greek Cypriot side and even reaching up to direct flights," he says.

"So now we are observing in great dismay that the EU cannot do anything without the permission or support of the Greek Cypriot side."

Freeze threat

Mr Lillikas counters that Turkish Cypriot isolation is "a myth".

"How are they isolated?" he asks. "They asked and we gave them passports of the Republic of Cyprus; they feel isolated because no-one recognises their state."

Now we ask for fulfilment [of Turkey's obligations] before any negotiation on any chapter George Lillikas

In tough mood, Mr Lillikas accuses Turkey of behaving provocatively - sending "negative messages" that it will never recognise Cyprus and vetoing Cyprus's accession to "various international organisations".

He says Turkey must fulfil its obligations, including ratifying the Ankara Protocol on opening the ports, before Cyprus will negotiate on any chapter of Turkey's EU membership talks.

Asked if this means freezing the negotiations from now on, he responds: "I don't know how this will be interpreted but it is up to the Turks... they have enough time to October/November to ratify [the protocol] and open ports and airports... they decide if it will move forward or stop. If they want to stop, it will be stopped."

But Mr Talat insists that "the best proposal is the Turkish one to lift restrictions simultaneously" on both Turkish and northern Cypriot ports.

Wiggle room

The European Commission put forward draft regulations two years ago for direct trade and financial aid to northern Cyprus, but Mr Talat says "direct trade is dead for the Greek Cypriots" - who have blocked it, arguing it is tantamount to recognition of the north.

Lifting of our isolation is not a bargaining issue - these are our rights Mehmet Ali Talat

The EU did pass the aid regulation in February, but in early July the Greek Cypriots blocked the funds totalling 259m euros (£175m), leading Mr Talat to comment: "I do not have a feeling they'll ever allow implementation."

Mr Lillikas says they blocked the first tranche of funds (38m euros, or £26m) - in part on energy projects - because the European Commission "suggested projects that would lead clearly to the separation of the island".

He adds that if the measure is voted through regardless of Cypriot objections, Cyprus will challenge it in the European Court.

Despite the discouraging mood music, EU diplomats hope the aid deal will go through in September.

And behind the scenes some EU diplomats are working - albeit pessimistically - on a small direct trade package for northern Cyprus, in the hope of allowing Turkey enough wiggle room to open its ports to Greek Cypriot shipping.

'Train crash'

But the Greek and Turkish Cypriot sides seem far apart - and preliminary talks in 2005 on a direct trade package collapsed, each side blaming the other.

Mr Talat does not sound ready to compromise: "Lifting of [our] isolation is not a bargaining issue - these are our rights."

If the two sides do not come closer together, then the EU faces an uphill battle to stop what Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has referred to as a "train crash" with Turkey this autumn.

Both Mr Talat and Mr Lillikas say they do not want this to happen.

If it does, European diplomats doubt any revived UN dialogue on Cyprus could survive.

So while for now there is a glimmer of light on UN Cyprus talks, it could soon fade again.