What's fuelling rumours of Mladic arrest?

By Nick Hawton
BBC News, Sarajevo

Belgrade media has been in utter confusion over Gen Mladic's arrest

This is not the first time that rumours of General Ratko Mladic's arrest have swept across the former Yugoslavia.

But the bushfire of speculation and claims has reached a new intensity and has led many to believe that something is finally afoot.

Gen Ratko Mladic remains one of Europe's most wanted men, accused by prosecutors at the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague of genocide for his role during the 1992-1995 Bosnian War.

The charges relate to the massacre of nearly 8,000 Muslims at Srebrenica and the siege and shelling of Sarajevo.

Conflicting reports

The Belgrade media seems in utter confusion, some publications claiming he has been arrested, others that negotiations are under way and yet others that he has already been secretly transferred to The Hague.

But organisations that should be in a position to know have been categorical in their denials of the reports.

Prosecutors at The Hague, the Serbian government, international peacekeepers in Bosnia and western diplomats all claim there is no hard evidence that an arrest operation is under way or has already been carried out. So what is actually happening?

As the saying goes "there is no smoke without fire". And there is no doubt that in recent weeks, there have been significant moves in Belgrade.

Is it possible the current rumours have been started to test public opinion for a future Mladic arrest?

The newly-appointed defence minister of Serbia and Montenegro, Zoran Stankovic, held secret talks with Gen Mladic's wife and son in his office just before New Year.

It is rumoured those talks centred around the possibility of Gen Mladic's peaceful surrender.

Dr Stankovic is very close to the Mladic family. In 1994 he carried out the autopsy of Mr Mladic's daughter, Ana, who had committed suicide.

He has met Gen Mladic on several occasions and it is thought the family may trust him if any negotiations take place.

Indeed the defence ministry appears to have been active in pursuing the Mladic case over recent months.

It carried out a special investigation into claims that members of the military had been helping the fugitive general and concluded that up until 2002 this had been the case.

The ministry also discovered that Gen Mladic was still being paid his military pension up until October last year. This has now been stopped.

In the past few weeks, there have been two arrests of individuals said to have been involved in the general's protection network.

'Rumour mill'

So why have all these rumours arisen at this time and so spectacularly? There are a number of possible reasons.

Firstly, the Serbian government is desperate to be seen to be acting on the issue. Foreign aid, membership of the European Union, even Serbia's international image are, in large part, dependent on its co-operation over the Mladic case.

Ratko Mladic remains a hero to many Serbs

Talk of "surrender negotiations" and "arrest operations" does no harm to the government at this time.

Secondly, and perhaps more intriguingly, is it possible that the current rumours have been started in order to test public opinion for a future Mladic arrest?

He remains a hero to many Serbs and there are fears among the Serbian government and the international community that his arrest could spark a violent reaction.

The reports and speculation over the past few days could be a useful way of testing the water for any future reaction.

Thirdly, it is possible that negotiations and an operation are really under way and that, somehow, details have leaked.

This could potentially jeopardise any peaceful surrender and make it more difficult to locate Gen Mladic.

But at this stage it appears that Gen Mladic remains on the run.

Many will not begin to believe the rumours until, finally, the face of Gen Mladic finally appears on screen and sitting in the dock at The Hague tribunal.

And Gen Mladic is not the only one.

His former political boss, Radovan Karadzic, has also managed to evade those hunting him. Together, he and Mladic have spent the best part of a decade on the run, thumbing their noses at the international community.