French relax as campaign ends

By Sarah Shenker
BBC News, Paris

The Parisians enjoying the city's unusually hot weather in cafes and parks across the capital could be forgiven for seeking distractions from the impending referendum on the European constitution.

Parisians seem distracted by the exceptionally hot weather

But while there may be few signs on the streets of Sunday's vote, with most election posters consigned to officially sanctioned boards, the issue has dominated the media for months.

If they seem disinterested on such a beautiful summer day, it has nevertheless been a campaign of "great, great, great" interest to France's 40 million voters, Philippe Hubert of French pollsters Ipsos told the BBC.

"We are expecting a turnout of at least 60%, which is exceptional for a vote on a European issue."

From when a date for the referendum was set in March to the official end of campaigning on Friday, it has been a long campaign.

The French government pledged to send a copy of the constitution to every voter, along with explanatory notes.

'Divine intervention'

French television has broadcast dozens of live debates, including one two-and-a-half-hour double-round table debate between eight leading politicians, each with a dog-eared copy of the constitution to wave at each other to emphasise a point.

An editorial in Le Figaro newspaper talks enthusiastically of a "new passion for public debate".

Mr Chirac probably thought holding a referendum would hurt his opponents, but he must be wondering now whether it was really a good idea Professor Michel Verpeaux

News magazines have devoted acres of space to covering the issue. One pro-constitution magazine, Le Nouvel Observateur, is even giving away a DVD of a documentary exploring the history of the treaty.

A Parisian bakery has also entered the fray, creating special referendum breads - one marked "Oui", the other "Non".

For the first time the internet - and more specifically weblogs - have played a part in the debate during in a French election.

Many anti-constitution blogs surfaced early in the campaign, amid accusations from the "No" camp that the French media was giving more coverage to the "Yes" camp.

It was a view backed by broadcasting regulators, who found that the "Yes" side had benefited from more airtime on the issue. Since early May, polls have been suggesting that the "No" vote will win. The latest Ipsos poll for Le Figaro newspaper on Friday put the "No" camp at 55%.

President Jacques Chirac made a heartfelt appeal to voters

"Polls can't predict the future," Mr Hubert said, "but while the 'Yes' vote could gain some ground, it would be a great surprise if it won."

Le Figaro newspaper writes that only a "divine intervention" could now tip the scales.

For such an enthusiastically European country, it would be a surprising turn of events.

For days, newspapers have been speculating about where it all went wrong.

When President Jacques Chirac announced the date for a referendum, a large majority of voters were thought to have been in favour.

But in an editorial on Saturday, the daily left-wing newspaper Liberation characterised the "Yes" campaign as "calamitous".

The government and the leadership of the opposition Socialist Party failed to "exploit the opportunism of the No campaign, which exploited French fears over social dumping", it said.

Protest vote

Opposition to the treaty has not followed traditional political lines, with extremes of the left and right coming out against the treaty, albeit for different reasons.

Those on the left, including large parts of the membership of the opposition Socialist Party, say they fear the treaty is a charter for big business and will increased French unemployment.

Opponents on the right, including members of the ruling centrist UMP and the far-right National Front of Jean-Marie Le Pen, say the treaty damages French sovereignty, and would pave the way for Turkey to join the EU.

"The 'No' side has really dominated the campaign," said Professor Michel Verpeaux, director of the Centre for Research on constitutional law at the Sorbonne university in Paris. "The government has merely reacted against their arguments," he said.

"People have also reacted badly to being criticised by the government for thinking of voting 'No'," he said.

Mr Verpeaux believes the level of debate was serious and well-informed, but often "polluted" by issues unrelated to the constitution, including a desire to register a protest vote against Mr Chirac and his government."

A likely result of a "No" vote would be the resignation of Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, whose premiership has been unpopular.

But it would also cast a shadow over Mr Chirac's presidency, as he considers whether to stand again in 2007.

"Mr Chirac probably thought holding a referendum would hurt his opponents," says Mr Verpeaux, "but he must be wondering now whether it was really a good idea."