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Monday, September 6, 1999 Published at 14:38 GMT 15:38 UK


World: Europe

Analysis: Is the Caucasus conflict escalating?

Russian troops are trying to crush the Dagestan rebellion

By regional analyst Tom de Waal

Chechnya celebrates its eighth Independence Day on Monday - commemorating the day when supporters of General Dzhokhar Dudayev seized the Supreme Soviet building in Grozny in 1991.

Battle for the Caucasus
  • Chechnya: Round two?
  • Battle for the Caucasus
  • Cat-and-mouse conflict
  • Islamic roots in Dagestan
  • Russia's demoralised army
  • This particularly sensitive day in the Chechen calendar is being marked by some of the worst tension between Chechnya and Moscow since the end of the war three years ago.

    The Chechen deputy Prime Minister Kazbek Makhashev says that 43 people have been killed in air-raids on five villages in the Nozhai-Yurt region of eastern Chechnya.

    The area that was bombed is just across the border from the Lak region of Dagestan, where a group of fighters led by the Chechen rebel leader Shamil Basayev have seized several villages - their third armed incursion into Dagestan in a month.

    The Russians have again been embarrassed by the ease with which around 2,000 armed rebels crossed into Dagestan, despite statements in recent weeks that the Chechen-Dagestani border was well guarded.

    Retaliation?


    [ image: Russian troops withdrew from Chechnya eight years ago]
    Russian troops withdrew from Chechnya eight years ago
    The reported Russian bombing raid on Chechnya looks like an attempt to attack the rebels' home bases, but there may also be an element of pure retaliation for the terrible bomb attack on a building inhabited by soldiers in the town of Buynaksk on Saturday evening, when over 40 people died.

    But the Russian bombing-raid could prove counterproductive. If, as the Chechen authorities say, the main victims in the Chechen villages were civilians, including children, the Russian airforce has been as inaccurate as it was during the Chechen war.

    Most of the Chechen population does not actively support the rebels, but they become very angry if attacked by the Russians.

    Chechen government under threat


    [ image: Chechnya's President Maskhadov has never been granted a meeting with the Russian goverment]
    Chechnya's President Maskhadov has never been granted a meeting with the Russian goverment
    Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov has so far condemned both sides in the recent fighting between the Islamist rebels - led by members of the Chechen opposition such as Basayev - and Russian forces.

    He now faces the prospect of being slowly dragged into the fighting. The new Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has made it clear he plans to use force where possible in Dagestan.

    Mr Putin has been building up the image of a "strong man" in contrast to his predecessor Sergei Stepashin, who had struck up a good working relationship with the Chechen authorities.

    That means Mr Putin may decide to order more attacks inside Chechnya. If that happens, the Chechen president will call for a massed Chechen defence against the Russians - anything else would be tantamount to political suicide for the leader of self-proclaimed independent Chechnya.

    Russian election issue

    In Russia itself the Dagestan problem is becoming more and more sensitive as the December parliamentary elections approach.

    Some politicians are calling for political dialogue with President Maskhadov, who was promised a top-level meeting with Russia's Prime-Minister-before-last Yevgeny Primakov earlier this year, but has not met a top Russian official for many months now.

    Others are calling for a tougher line against the "bandits", which could extend to armed incursions deep inside Chechnya. Public opinion is the main factor which makes Russian officials cautious about that option.

    The Interior Ministry admitted on Monday that 113 men have been killed and 404 wounded in recent military operations in Dagestan. Those disturbing casualty figures do not include regular army soldiers.



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    Relevant Stories

    03 Sep 99 | Europe
    Battle for the soul of the Caucasus

    25 Aug 99 | Europe
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    25 Aug 99 | Europe
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    Internet Links


    Caucasian Club: Dagestan

    Pro-rebel Kavkaz-Tsentr site (in Russian)

    Dagestani Government (in Russian)

    CaspianNet: Dagestan Republic


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