Trouble ahead for Turkey's EU bid

By Paul Reynolds World Affairs correspondent, BBC News website

The EU is divided over Turkish accession

Turkey's accession to the European Union would mark perhaps the most significant enlargement so far, extending EU borders to Iraq, Syria, Iran and the Caucasus and bringing in for the first time a huge country with a largely Muslim population.

Already the EU has been shaken to its foundations by the prospect, with some member states doubtful that Turkey can be absorbed and others determined that Turkey becomes a political as well as strategic partner, and a democratic example to the rest of the Middle East.

But while doubts will remain, it is difficult to see actual negotiations failing. Throughout its history, the EU, its predecessors and the applicants have shown flexibility in shaping transitional arrangements.

And in any event, the negotiating framework does not foresee any result before 2014. Some say that Turkish membership could be delayed even longer, and there will have to be long transitional arrangements for key policies such as the free movement of people and agricultural support.

If talks succeed, the problems will not be over. France and Austria have given to their peoples the right to say Yes or No in referendums. Other governments of the day might also withhold their approval, and unanimity is required.

Secular state

However, there are three factors that point towards eventual success, whatever the present difficulties.

One is that Turkey has demonstrated a willingness to adapt to European democratic standards.

The second is that while it is Muslim by religion, it has a strong secular tradition.

The third is that Turkey is a member of Nato, helping to defend the Europe that it now seeks to join. This will count.

Turkey remains at odds with Greece over Cyprus

On the democratic front, Turkey has already changed a whole series of repressive laws and has banned the death penalty as it prepared itself for the start of negotiations.

These standards will have to be maintained; otherwise accession talks will be broken off.

As for the issue of Islam, this is sometimes misunderstood.

Turkey's population of some 70 million (which could overtake that of Germany if and when it joins) is certainly overwhelmingly Muslim by religion. But ever since Kemal Ataturk founded the modern state in 1923, it has turned its back on government by religion.

Indeed, the problems that Europe has had with Turkey have had nothing to do with religion. It was the authoritarian role of generals that had to be tackled.

Diplomatic factor

Nevertheless, history and suspicion are playing their part in making the path to accession a difficult one.

Some Austrians have even recalled the siege of Vienna in 1683, when the Turks were turned back at the gates of Europe.

And on the Turkish side, there is a risk that a spurned application could produce an anti-European backlash.

Greece helped Turkey after the devastating earthquake of 1999

A lot of myths remain to be overcome.

That they can be overcome was demonstrated after the Turkish earthquake in 1999.

Amid the disaster, one hugely positive diplomatic factor emerged.

Greece offered immediate help and it was accepted.

I found this change of atmosphere particularly interesting, as I remember being sent to Athens in 1974 after the Turks invaded Cyprus, and being prepared for a conflict between Greece and Turkey.

War did not come, and now nobody wants one.

If Greece can settle its differences with Turkey (and recognition of Cyprus by Turkey will have to come before any accession), then probably one day the rest of Europe will as well.

But it will take time.

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