German election tension mounts

By Ray Furlong BBC correspondent in Berlin

Mrs Merkel's CDU still has a comfortable poll lead

The German election campaign is now in what is described as the "hot phase".

There have been four party conferences in the last 10 days and the main candidates go head-to-head on television this Sunday.

Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and his conservative Christian Democrat (CDU) challenger Angela Merkel will slug it out for an hour and a half, watched by an expected audience of 20 million voters.

But with the opinion polls increasingly unmoving, many Germans believe it will have little impact on the final outcome on polling day - 18 September.

"The SPD lies on around 30% support. That's a minimum - less than that would be its worst result since 1949," says Peter Loesche, politics professor at the University of Goettingen.

The best the chancellor can hope for, he says, is a role for the SPD in a "grand coalition" led by the CDU.

"We had a grand coalition in 1966-69, and this was very successful because it pushed through several reform programmes. Thus there are quite a few people who think that a new grand coalition might push through reforms which are necessary in Germany today."

Scoring points

But while this idea might be popular with the voters, both parties strongly reject it - and have instead been stepping up their attacks on each other.

Mr Schroeder suffered a spate of local election defeats

"Mr Schroeder is making a farewell tour through the country," mocked Angela Merkel at the CDU party conference on Sunday.

His Red-Green coalition (Social Democrats and Greens) had "promised much but delivered little".

"Time and again they promised to get the jobless total below 3.5 million people. Mr Schroeder thought he would escape his own words. But now we see: you can't escape reality! In the meantime, there are nearly five million unemployed."

Mrs Merkel was given a euphoric reception from around 10,000 supporters at the Westphalia conference hall in Dortmund - including many young conservatives with "Angie" placards.

The event was in fact more like a victory party. There was a stunning acrobatic performance, a laser show, and even a "Queen" revival band - as the CDU went in for American-style convention politics.

Schroeder hits back

The Social Democrat conference three days later was a more modest affair. Instead of jubilation, the prevailing mood was defiance, as a succession of speakers tried to boost party morale.

"I support the SPD and Gerhard Schroeder so that the people in this country can have some prospects," said union leader and former professional Thai boxer, Uwe Hueck.

The high unemployment rate tops the election agenda

"The conservatives talk about honesty. But they intend to make the workers defenceless in the face of the markets!"

He was followed by a speaker who said the SPD was the party that stood for "women's interests" - and Mr Schroeder was duly photographed with the party's female candidates.

The chancellor was rewarded with a 12-minute standing ovation for his speech, which was largely a defence of his seven years in office. But the main message was to the party faithful not to give up.

"An unholy alliance of opinion pollsters, opinion-makers, industry associations, and the opposition are trying to tell the people of Germany that the election is already over. I say: nothing is decided!"

"Don't let yourselves be hunted into foxholes! This election will be decided in the last days!"

Mr Schroeder went on to accuse the conservatives of wanting to create a new kind of society in Germany. "That society is cold, lacking in solidarity, and inhumane," he added.

Mr Schroeder's wife, Doris, has also got involved in the fray - criticising Angela Merkel for not having children.

"Mrs Merkel, with her biography, does not embody the experience of most women," she told the news weekly Die Zeit.

"They are concerned with how to cope with a job and a family, whether to leave work for a few years after giving birth or how to best bring up their children. That is not Mrs Merkel's world."

It is not expected that either candidate will go for the jugular in quite this manner in Sunday's TV debate.

It could be that the format - four presenters from four different broadcasters, all competing for attention as much as the candidates - prevents any real cut and thrust.

But the excited mood of the campaign will ensure that it is a closely watched contest, not least because there is still plenty to play for.

The conservatives may be well ahead, but they may still fall short of enough seats to form a coalition with their favoured partner - the liberals. In that case, they will face the unpalatable option of the "grand coalition."