German EU referendum dilemma

By Ray Furlong BBC Berlin correspondent

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Germany wants to be the first country in the EU to ratify the bloc's new constitution - and that probably means without a referendum.

"Even if we wanted to have one in Germany, we couldn't," said Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, after Britain and France announced they would be handing the decision directly to the people.

He was referring to the fact that the German constitution has no provision for referendums.

It was drawn up in 1949, when memories were still fresh of how the Nazis twice used plebiscites for aggressive purposes - for the remilitarisation of the Rhineland in 1936 and the swallowing-up of Austria in 1938.

But there is a government proposal to change the law on this. "We are a governing coalition that has presented itself in favour of referendums generally," says Green Party MP Antje Vollmer.

"At a time when scepticism is growing among the population about centralistic tendencies, making referendums possible would be a way of gaining trust.

"This must also apply to holding a referendum on the EU Constitution."

Lengthy procedure

The proposals make popular votes possible for internal issues, if enough people sign petitions calling for them.

On foreign policy, the Bundestag (lower house) would decide whether to put an issue to a referendum.

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If it were, a result would require more than 50% of the votes, plus more than 25% of all eligible voters in order to be valid.

But getting this change through parliament will be tough, as it needs a two-thirds majority, and the main opposition conservatives have traditionally rejected referendums. A previous proposal, in 1998, was voted down.

Therefore, the government has decided to write letters to opposition MPs calling on them to support the proposals - rather than submit them as a bill to parliament in the immediate future.

"There's no point starting the legislative process with a bill that the others don't want," said Social Democrat (SPD) leader Franz Muentefering this week.

"We would also find it good if a (popular) vote on the constitution were to take place," he added.

The situation is further complicated by two other issues: splits in the conservative camp, and the issue of Turkey.

Complications

The main conservative party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), opposes a referendum on the constitution.

But the Christian Social Union (CSU), its Bavarian sister party, wants one.

"If all the peoples of Europe could vote on the same day, it would be a great way to bring the EU closer to the people," said CSU leader Edmund Stoiber in July.

Meanwhile, the CDU has spoken in favour of a referendum on letting Turkey join the EU - but that is something the German government says is expressly ruled out by its new proposals.

These complications make a referendum on the EU constitution unlikely, according to Andreas Maurer from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

"The government wants to approve the constitution in early 2005," he says.

"But it would take one to one-and-a-half years to change the German constitution, thereby making a referendum possible."

"Furthermore, passing the EU constitution through parliament won't be a problem."