Excerpts: EU study on Turkey

Turkey looks forward to EU membership

Negotiations enabling Turkey to join the European Union could take at least a decade, according EU documents obtained by the BBC.

Here are excepts from the studies - the first is titled: Issues raised by Turkey's possible membership in the European Union.

Accession of Turkey to the European Union would be challenging both for the EU and Turkey. If well managed, it would offer important opportunities for both. The necessary preparations for accession would last well into the next decade. The EU will evolve over this period, and Turkey should change even more radically.

Turkey's accession would be different from previous enlargements because of the combined impact of Turkey's population, size, geographical location, economic, security and military potential. These factors give Turkey the capacity to contribute to regional and international stability.

Expectations regarding EU policies towards these regions will grow as well, taking into account Turkey's existing political and economic links to its neighbours.

Much will depend on how the EU itself will take on the challenge to become a fully-fledged foreign policy player in the medium term in regions traditionally characterised by instability and tensions, including the Middle East and the Caucasus.

Turkey is at present going through a process of radical change, including a rapid evolution of mentalities. It is in the interest of all that the current transformation process continues.

Turkey would be an important model of a country with a majority Muslim population adhering to such fundamental principles as liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law.

The economic impact of Turkey's accession on the EU would be positive but relatively small, both due to the modest size of the Turkish economy and to the degree of economic integration already existing before accession. Much will depend on future economic developments in Turkey.

Agriculture is one of the most important economic and social sectors in Turkey and would need special attention. Turkey would need time to make a number of agricultural sectors more competitive. Under present policies Turkey would be eligible for substantial support.

With over three million, Turks constitute by far the largest group of third-country nationals legally residing in today's EU. Available studies give varying estimates of expected additional migration following Turkey's accession.

Long transition periods and a safeguard clause could be considered to avoid serious disturbances on the EU labour market. However, the population dynamics of Turkey could offset the ageing of EU societies.

The management of the EU's long new external borders would constitute an important policy challenge and require significant investment.

The budgetary impact of Turkish membership to the EU can only be fully assessed once the parameters for the financial negotiations with Turkey have been defined in the context of the financial perspectives from 2014 onwards. However, it is clear that the budgetary impact under present policies would be substantial.

The hypothetical net cost to the EU in 2025 would be between 16.5bn euro and 27.9bn (all in 2004 prices)... corresponding to between 0.1% and 0.17 % of EU25 GDP at that time.

From the 2004 regular report on Turkey's progress towards accession:

Following decades of sporadic progress and partly because of a political consolidation after the 2002 elections, there has been a substantial institutional convergence in Turkey towards European standards.

Political reforms have introduced changes ranging from improved civil liberties and human rights to enhanced civilian control of the military. Civil society has grown stronger.

The reform process has clearly addressed major issues and, importantly, highlighted a growing consensus in favour of liberal democracy.

Considerable efforts have been made to strengthen the fight against torture and ill-treatment, in particular through abolishing incommunicado detention and improving the rules for pre-trial detention, access to a lawyer and medical examinations... Although torture is no longer systematic, numerous cases of torture and in particular ill-treatment still continue to occur and further efforts will be required to eradicate such practice.

Although freedom of religious belief is guaranteed in the constitution and freedom to worship is largely unhampered, non-Muslim religious communities continue to experience problems related to legal personality, property rights, training of clergy, schools and internal management.

The principle of equality of men and women has been strengthened. Under the new Penal Code, perpetrators of "honour killings" should be punished with life imprisonment, virginity tests will be prohibited unless formally authorised by a judge or prosecutor, and sexual assault in marriage will qualify as a criminal offence. However, on the ground, violence against women remains a serious problem.