Turkey's long quest to join Europe

By Oana Lungescu
BBC correspondent in Brussels

The move to ban adultery sparked protests and EU anxiety

The European Commission welcomed the adoption of a revised penal code in Turkey at the weekend.

It is one of the key elements in the country's bid to start membership negotiations with the European Union (EU).

The penal code did not include a proposal to criminalise adultery, which had triggered a bitter row between Turkey and the EU.

While the decision opens the way to a positive report on Turkey by the European Commission on 6 October, questions continue to be asked about Turkey's preparedness to join the bloc in the future.

Satisfaction

Only a week ago, Turkey's bid to begin EU entry talks was in serious doubt - the parliament had delayed the adoption of the revised penal code.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended the move to criminalise adultery.

Erdogan has said the EU should not meddle in Turkey's internal affairs

But after a snap visit to Brussels, Mr Erdogan announced that the parliament would reconvene for an emergency session to pass the revised penal code - without the controversial clause.

The parliament did so, to the satisfaction of commission spokesman Jean-Christophe Filori.

"Since we have said in the past weeks that the Turkish penal code is a central element of the democratisation and modernisation process in Turkey, we can of course only welcome the step," Mr Filori said.

Mr Filori repeated that the vote would allow the European Enlargement Commissioner, Guenter Verheugen, to make a clear recommendation on whether the EU should start entry talks with Turkey.

It is widely expected that Mr Verheugen will give Ankara the green light in a week's time.

Doubts

But several other European commissioners have expressed doubts about the consequences of the accession of such a big, poor Muslim nation. They include the Agriculture Commissioner, Franz Fischler, and Single Market Commissioner Frits Bolkestein.

Questions have also been raised in the European Parliament, during the ongoing hearings of the future members of the European Commission.

The designated Regional Policy Commissioner, Danuta Huebner, will manage over a third of the EU's annual budget.

The issue of Turkey's membership has moved on apace

When centre-right MEPs asked her if she had any concerns about the cost of Turkey's membership, Ms Huebner indicated that any cost calculations were purely speculative, as the country was not expected to join before 2013.

"... We should think about the consequences, but we shouldn't probably focus that much on numbers, because that will depend on the EU member states," she said.

'Irreversible'

Together with its report on 6 October, the commission will publish a study on the consequences of Turkey's EU membership.

But EU officials are against putting a price tag in terms of farming and regional subsidies.

It is a wonderful but meaningless exercise, one official told the BBC.

Even if Turkey joins around 2015, it may have to wait for a decade until it gets the full level of subsidies, the official said.

But some are already making political calculations.

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier has backed calls by Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy for a referendum on Turkey before the country is allowed to join the EU.

The move is seen as an attempt to cool the public debate in France, where polls show that 56 % of people oppose Turkey's entry.

However, a referendum would have to wait another decade, since negotiations with Turkey are expected to last for many years.

The final decision to begin those negotiations will be taken in December not by referendum, but by EU leaders - and French President Jacques Chirac is on record as saying that Turkey's EU membership is "irreversible".