Cyprus plan faces uphill battle

Annan says the time for talking is over

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has unveiled his Cyprus reunification plan aimed at healing almost 30 years of division

James Ker-Lindsay, an expert on Turkish-Greek relations, is based in Nicosia as Executive Director of Civilitas Research, an independent think tank.

He spoke to the BBC's World Today Programme about reaction to the plan.

"There has been a lot of hostility from many Greek Cypriots towards the third version of the Annan plan - in fact in all versions of the Annan plan and that was always going to be a problem as we went into these talks.

I think the Greek Cypriots thought that they thought they would go to Switzerland, that they would be able to make some substantial changes, get some advantage out of the plan and then come back and start the Yes campaign in earnest.

Unfortunately it seems that Annan's fourth plan has been widely seen to be much more favourable to the Turks and so it has really put the Yes campaign in a very difficult position back here in Cyprus.

I think there are a range of issues that need to be considered.

For example, the question of troops, the fact that Turkey will be allowed to maintain an indefinite military presence on the island.

There has been a lot of attention given to this issue, but in actual fact this was always going to be a line in the sand for Ankara.

Unless Turkish troops stayed that was going to be a deal breaker for Turkey.

It was one of those issues where it was always a question of compromise and what sort of numbers were going to stay.

Refugee disappointment

In terms of refugees getting to return home, I think there is a high degree of disappointment about what has taken place - the fact 29% of the island will remain in Turkish Cypriot control, and that at the maximum level it seems that about 18% of Greek Cypriots will be able to live in those areas.

Having said that there will be large number of Greek Cypriots who will be able to go home to properties they lost - many tens of thousands of refugees will actually get the chance to go home, even under this plan.

I think the element of compensation is also something that has been discussed at length and all sorts of figures have been bandied about on the cost of this settlement.

Some are ridiculously high and have been dismissed, in actual fact there have been arguments that the government might even record a surplus in the first few years, but I think that that swings too far the other way.

Counting the cost

I think it is certainly going to cost money and Cypriots will be looking for international support and that is going to be a very important element as well.

For some people there is the acceptance that they would take compensation - they have forged new lives now in other towns and although they are refugees they have now got jobs and family living in Limassol or Nicosia.

But there are a substantial number who do want to go, who want to go home to their property - the elderly especially.

So I think we are in a very complicated situation now and we will have to see in the next few days what the main political parties say.

But at the moment things are not looking good for a Yes vote."