Shevardnadze's Russian dance?

By Natalia Antelava
Tbilisi

As thousands of Georgian protesters demand Eduard Shevardnadze's resignation, the views of Russia have been added to the tense equation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin rang Tbilisi on Sunday.

"As always, you will find a solution and restore stability to the country," he reportedly told the Georgian president, and promised all the help the Kremlin could give in the increasing crisis over a parliamentary election.

Critics fear Shevardnadze may move closer to Russia

The phone call, and the promise did not sound like good news to many in Georgia.

Unwilling to let go of its traditional grip on the Caucasus, the Kremlin has always played hard-ball politics in Georgia.

A Moscow-imposed visa regime, Russia's support for separatist forces in Abkhazia and its refusal to remove its military from Georgian territory are all seen by critics as stumbling blocks for Georgia's successful development.

And it was Russian troops who brought violence the last time Georgians protested peacefully in front of the parliament - on that occasion over independence from the Soviet Union.

Ever since independence, and until recently, the main aim of Mr Shevardnadze's pro-Western course has been to move Georgia away from Russia's influence, seen by many as destabilising and unpopular.

In pictures: Georgia crisis

But as Mr Shevardnadze's popularity at home plummets and that of the opposition grows, some suspect that Mr Shevardnadze will try to drag Russia into a crisis that he cannot handle on his own.

The suspicion was fuelled when, on Monday, Mr Shevardnadze headed to Batumi, the capital of the autonomous republic of Ajaria and the land governed by a man who has until now has been, at least formally, Mr Shevardnadze's opponent.

Ajaria, or Aslandia as many call it, is ruled by Aslan Abashidze - a man of openly pro-Russian policies.

Since Mr Abashidze took control of Ajaria in 1991 he has managed to secure an impressive amount of autonomy for the region through what analysts suggest is a rather autocratic regime.

Key ally

Mr Abashidze never wins the election with less than 90% of the vote - giving him virtual control of 10% of the national vote.

This time around, official figures show Mr Abashidze's party gained 95% of the vote in Ajaria and finished a close second behind Mr Shevardnadze's political bloc nationally.

International observers were harshly critical of the vote in Ajaria, during which several election monitors were harassed and kicked out of polling stations.

All the same, addressing crowds in Batumi on Monday, Mr Shevardnadze and Mr Abashidze said they were determined to defend the results of what Mr Shevardnadze has hailed as one of Georgia's most democratic and transparent election.

Shevardnadze's trip to Ajaria in context with his conversation with Putin is a clear sign that Shevardnadze is desperate for support Giga Bokeria Liberty Institute

And Aslan Abashidze said that if necessary he'd be ready to provide military help in the process.

Ajaria does not have an army of its own. But it is home to one of Russia's last remaining military bases in the Caucasus.

No official statements have come from the Kremlin, although another Russian military base in Georgia has been reportedly put on high alert.

"Shevardnadze's trip to Ajaria in context with his conversation with Putin is a clear sign that Shevardnadze is desperate for support. Support for Abashidze means support for the Kremlin," says Giga Bokeria, of the non-governmental Liberty Institute.

By playing the Russia card openly, Mr Shevardadze is trying to warn his disobedient citizens and at the same time send a message to the United States and try to decrease the pressure over the rigged election, says Mr Bokeria.

Traditional tactic

In any case, Mr Shevardnadze can no longer afford to choose partners and friends, and he seems to be no longer able to rely on the most important supporter he's had - his electorate.

Quite a change for a man with once undisputed talent for turning foes into trusting followers.

Many times during Georgia's past political storms, Mr Shevardnadze has walked bravely into angry crowds, talked openly to opponents, and has won the hearts and minds of people who had been set against him.

But this time his methods seem to have failed him.