All eyes on Georgia's future

By Rob Parsons BBC correspondent in Georgia

Old adversaries the US and Russia are locking horns once more, keen for a stake in the political future of Georgia.

It has been a febrile summer in Georgia - full of electricity and rumours.

A sense of foreboding hangs over the capital, Tbilisi, thick and heavy like the clouds that have rolled south off the Caucasus mountains.

The heavens have opened in great torrential downpours and hillsides that by now should be parched a burnt-out shade of brown are lush and green.

The US has a commitment to keeping a stability in Georgia

Nobody has known a summer like it.

The auguries are not good. The politics have matched the meteorological chaos.

Georgia finds itself on the cusp of potentially momentous change.

Parliamentary elections are due in November and battle has been waged - with a vengeance.

The stakes this year are high - because the outcome may have a critical bearing on who succeeds President Eduard Shevardnadze when he steps down in 2005.

And it is not just the Georgians who are watching.

Wedged between Russia to the north and Turkey and Iran to the south, the southern Caucasus has always been a battleground of empires, faiths and ideologies.

Tiny and distant

The old rituals are being played out again. The world's only global superpower has locked horns with a Russia weakened and confused but still the biggest player in the region.

But why should Washington be interested in tiny distant Georgia?

The answer is oil, geo-politics and the changed world after 9/11.

When the Georgians asked for US help against Chechen and al-Qaeda forces operating in Georgia's lawless Pankisi Gorge, Washington was quick to oblige

The United States has invested huge political and financial capital in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, a vast project that will take Caspian Sea oil from Azerbaijan, via Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean coast.

The project provides the US with a massive alternative source of energy in the event of instability in the Middle East.

Put simply, it wants to ensure that its investment is protected.

That means a commitment to stability and democracy in Georgia that goes beyond occasional words of support.

So when the Georgians asked for US help against Chechen and al-Qaeda forces operating in Georgia's lawless Pankisi Gorge, Washington was quick to oblige.

The Stars and Stripes have arrived.

What began as a trickle is now a steady flow.

I no longer do a double-take when I see a group of shaven-skulled marines strolling with studied nonchalance through the streets of Tbilisi.

They are always in threes, though, never alone.

It is strange though to watch these lantern-jawed soldiers stroll down streets where only years ago the Soviet Union paraded its missiles and screamed "Urraah!" to the glory of the October Revolution.

Moscow did not encourage the appearance of foreigners in the far-flung reaches of its teetering empire

I remember those days well because I was here then as a student.

A rare phenomenon I was too - Moscow did not encourage the appearance of foreigners in the far-flung reaches of its teetering empire.

Good reasons

On one sublimely surreal occasion, I was walking with two girls when they were hauled off the street by KGB goons and given a grilling - what did they think they were doing in public with a foreigner?

Now in the air-conditioned luxury of a Marriott hotel, I watch a group of off-duty US soldiers sip iced cokes and flirt with a Georgian waitress.

She is barely old enough to remember the Soviet Union and the chances are she does not speak a word of Russian.

The second language of choice now is English.

The stakes are high in the forthcoming elections

Georgia has good reason to be well-disposed to Uncle Sam.

Washington has propped up its fragile independence to the tune of one billion dollars plus.

That makes Georgians the second biggest per capita recipients of US aid after the Israelis.

It also gives Washington an increasing stake - and say - in the political future of the country.

The US ambassador is described by many here as minister extraordinary to President Shevardnadze's government.

Moscow has watched these goings on in its backyard with a mixture of disbelief and horror.

It is assumed by all that Moscow will try to manipulate the elections

When Washington first unveiled its plans to train three battalions of the Georgian army up to NATO standards, there was uproar in Russia.

This summer has made things worse.

Rage

First, a US spy plane cruised along the Georgian-Russian border, then Nato sent one of its ultra-sophisticated Awac patrol planes on a goodwill visit to Tbilisi.

The Kremlin was apoplectic with rage.

And that is why it too is watching Georgia's elections with close interest.

It is assumed by all that Moscow will try to manipulate the elections.

In the back-stabbing world that passes for Georgian politics, accusations of treachery fly thick and fast.

And this summer Russia has made some timely reminders of its power.

The gas giant, Gazprom, has acquired a virtual monopoly over the supply and distribution of Georgian gas, and the Russian energy company, UES, has just bought a controlling stake in the electricity system.

It is Russia now - or Russian companies - who will determine the price of gas and electricity in Georgia.

And those are important considerations in an election year.