Balkans face long EU haul

By Oana Lungescu BBC, Porto Carras

EU leaders will promise the countries of the Balkans on Saturday that they too will one day have a place in an expanded EU.

This is provided they press on with reforms, keep their international commitments on war crimes and enhance regional co-operation.

WEST BALKAN NEIGHBOURS

Albania

Bosnia-Hercegovina

Croatia

Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Serbia-Montenegro

Over a decade ago, Europeans failed to prevent their backyard from collapsing into bloody chaos.

Now, they believe the prospect of EU membership is the best way to stabilise the region, just as it proved in post-communist eastern Europe.

"If we fail in the Balkans, we fail altogether," a senior EU diplomat warned. "And we have no excuse now."

Greek Minister for European affairs Tassos Iannitsis describes the region as "fragile" and beset by problems.

"If we don't support them politically, institutionally and financially, we run the danger of further instability on our continent," he states.

Performance targets

Back in 2000, after the fall of the Milosevic regime in Serbia, EU leaders met their Balkan counterparts in the Croatian capital Zagreb and told them their nations were "potential candidates."

The region is still regarded as being fragile

To make that promise more credible, they will now borrow some of the methods from the enlargement process to help bring the Balkans up to EU standards.

A 20-page document called the "Thessaloniki Agenda for the Western Balkans," to be adopted at the summit, stresses that the pace of further movement of these countries towards the EU lies in their own hands.

It will depend on each country's performance in implementing reforms, which will be measured every year through tailor-made "European partnerships".

These are effectively lists of priorities for economic, political and judicial reforms, which are similar to those agreed with existing EU candidates.

Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou insists this is a two-way street - the agenda, he says, is a very strong political and financial commitment from the EU, but also a very strong commitment from the countries of the western Balkans to make the necessary reforms.

Financial boost

Mr Papandreou has fought hard during Greece's EU presidency to establish the Balkans as a priority for the entire union - but he has not entirely succeeded.

The EU is keeping an eye on separatist tendencies in Serbia and Montenegro

The EU will boost its financial support to the region by over 200m euros between 2004-2006. This is an increase of 12%.

Meanwhile, assistance to neighbouring countries Romania and Bulgaria - which were left out of the first wave of expansion but hope to join in 2007 - will go up by a massive 30%.

To avoid new dividing lines, Mr Papandreou suggested earlier this year that left-over enlargement funds to the tune of 300m euros a year should be ploughed into the Balkans every year. But only Italy supported his plan, which was quickly shelved.

Balkan leaders will also be disappointed that the EU has no intention of allowing their citizens to travel without a visa, as they demand.

The onus is very much on them to prove they are doing their best to combat illegal migration and human trafficking, to fight against organised crime and corruption and to sign bilateral agreements with Europol.

Dialogue needed

EU officials say it is much too early to set a time-frame for the accession of the Balkan countries, even though Croatia and Serbia-Montenegro have publicly stated their ambition to join in 2007-2008, at the same time as Romania and Bulgaria.

Croatia's entry depends on whether it extradites certain generals to The Hague

That appears highly unrealistic.

Although Croatia has already tabled a membership bid, it is unlikely to start entry talks before late next year - and then, only if it extradites leading generals indicted for war crimes by the International War Crimes Tribunal.

The EU will watch closely if the Serbia-Montenegro union will survive - and still has to find a final political settlement for the UN protectorate in Kosovo, which is still formally part of Serbia.

One small victory of the Thessaloniki summit may be to set the stage for a direct dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina.

Within the EU, one diplomat said, everyone has to speak to everyone else. That is not yet the case in the Balkans.