Turkey alone in hour of crisis

By Roger Hardy BBC regional analyst

The Turks are feeling unloved.

Only a few months ago, their political prospects seemed bright.

Erdogan stands accused of bungling the Iraq crisis

In November a new government - dominated by the Justice and Development (or AK) Party - swept into office.

Unlike the unstable coalitions of the past, it commanded almost two-thirds of parliamentary seats.

The AK leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seemed to be the man of the moment.

Riding a wave of popularity he pledged that his two top priorities were economic reform and bringing the country into the European Union.

Turkey is left alone in the world

Sabah newspaper

Now, four months on, Mr Erdogan stands accused of bungling the most important issue of the hour - the Iraq crisis - and in the process alienating some of the country's most important allies.

"Turkey is left alone in the world," declared Monday's edition of the popular newspaper Sabah.

The US is furious with the Turks for undermining its efforts to create a credible "northern front" against Iraq.

It had been counting on implementing Plan A - sending 62,000 US troops through Turkey into northern Iraq.

But Turks are strongly opposed to the war, and Plan A was narrowly rejected by the Turkish parliament on 1 March.

The most the MPs would approve, weeks later, was to allow US planes the use of Turkish airspace.

Oil grab fear

They also took the contentious decision to authorise the sending of Turkish troops into northern Iraq.

Analysis: Turkey's border tensions

The Americans were doubly displeased.

Having lost weeks of valuable time, they were forced to revert to Plan B - putting a lighter force into northern Iraq - while forcibly warning the Turks against any unilateral intervention in the area.

The Turks say they need to protect their border and prevent an influx of Kurdish refugees.

But their real fear is that the Iraqi Kurds will seize the oil-rich area of Kirkuk (just south of the area the Kurds currently control) and declare it the capital of an independent Kurdish state.

Diplomats find it hard to recall a worse crisis in the long and close relationship between the US and Turkey

This, Turks fear, would inflame nationalist sentiment among their own Kurdish minority - some 20% of Turkey's population.

But although this position is widely supported by ordinary Turks, it could cost them dear.

They are already feeling the political fallout.

Mistakes

Diplomats find it hard to recall a worse crisis in the long and close relationship between the US and Turkey.

Arguably, both sides have made mistakes.

Mr Erdogan and his colleagues have shown themselves to be novices in world affairs. But the Americans have been pushy and insensitive to the feelings of the famously touchy Turks.

US units are heading from Turkey to the Gulf after Plan A's collapse

Relations with the EU have also been soured.

Turkey's determination to send troops into northern Iraq has been criticised by both Germany and Greece.

The Greeks, who currently hold the EU's rotating presidency, have warned that such a move could harm Turkey's chances of joining the EU - already damaged by the collapse of efforts to resolve the Cyprus dispute, widely blamed on the Turkish Cypriots.

There are economic implications too.

As Turkey struggles to emerge from its worst economic crisis since World War II, it fears the war in Iraq will deprive it of much-needed revenue from investment and tourism.

If it had agreed to let the 62,000 US troops onto its soil, it would have received an economic package worth $6bn in aid and billions more in loans.

Since there is no deal, say the Americans, the package is off the table.

War within a war

That is not quite the end of the story.

Too many people find Turkey useful for it to be allowed to wallow in angry isolation.

The US still wants to avoid what many are calling a "war within a war" - in other words, fighting in northern Iraq between Turkish forces and the Iraqi Kurds.

That means the Americans will have to go on talking to both Turks and Kurds to defuse the tension between them.

And some form of economic aid to Turkey is likely to be forthcoming, even if on a smaller scale.

But the bitterness will not disappear overnight.