Turkey's Iraq dilemma

Turkey's Iraq dilemma

By Jonny Dymond
BBC correspondent in Ankara

Turks show anger to US

Turkey's agreement to allow US warplanes to overfly its airspace may look like the end of a long and often tortuous process of negotiation, demand, counter-demand and final grudging acceptance.

But it is in fact the beginning of a new and possibly far more dangerous phase.

Turkey gave the US the barest minimum of what it wanted.

Late last year the US stunned the Turkish Government with its military request.

Turkey had always known that the US wanted to use its airbases in any assault on Iraq.

US and UK planes currently fly hundreds of mission out of the south eastern airbase of Incirlik to enforce the no-fly zone over Iraq.

US uses Turkish base for no-fly patrols

But the US wanted a lot more than airbases.

It wanted tens of thousands of troops to be stationed in Turkey, ready to create a northern front into Kurdish-controlled Iraq - that would require a logistical set-up rivalling those of Qatar and Kuwait.

The government has been mindful of both the deep hostility of the population towards war with Iraq, and the potential benefits that might accrue to Turkey in the form of American largesse.

It stalled, stringing out negotiations, holding out for more money and more political sway over a post-Saddam Iraq.

'Kurdish independence'

Uppermost in the calculations of the political and military establishments was the final status of Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq.

There is no love lost between Turkey and the Kurds, who have controlled the region for 12 years.

Turkey is terrified that during or after the war the Kurdish groups who run the administration there might declare independence.

Turkey also keeps a close eye on the area of Mosul and Kirkuk, just a few kilometres south of Kurdish-controlled territory, which has the third largest oil reserves in Iraq.

Hard bargaining

If it fell into Kurdish hands, a Kurdish state would have oil riches that would make it wealthier than most parts of Turkey - certainly richer than the impoverished south east of the country, where most of Turkey's Kurds live.

So Turkey bargained with the US, ignoring the suggestions artfully leaked to sympathetic writers that the Americans had a plan 'B' and that they might abandon Turkey.

It worked - America did come up with more money.

And Turkey won concessions over its military role in northern Iraq during the war and its political role afterwards.

But Turkey's government badly mishandled parliament.

Everyone, including this correspondent, assumed that parliament would fall into line.

It didn't. By three votes the authorisation motion failed to pass.

Then followed more delay, more prevarication, and a badly timed by-election before this second vote by parliament.

Turkey, once classed among America's closest friends in the region, has grudgingly given nothing more than what every other Nato ally has given - airspace rights.

It will receive, if it is lucky, a fraction of the aid that it was once in line for.

Kurdish war fears

And the great unknowable is northern Iraq, where Turkey has been warned not to go in.

The US says privately that it believes Turkey will refrain from entering the region and possibly starting a war with Kurdish forces.

But Turkey has given no such commitment, and views the entire area as part of its sphere of influence.

The US and Turkey may still be allies. But Turkey will not be dictated to.